Showing 1 - 10 of 133
The paper presents an incomplete competition model (ICM), where inflation is determined jointly with unit labour cost growth. The ICM is estimated on data for the Euro area and evaluated against existing models, i.e. the implicit inflation equation of the Area Wide model (AWM) - cf. Fagan, Henry...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009636545
It is standard in applied work to select forecasting models by ranking candidate models by their prediction mean square error (PMSE) in simulated ou-of-sample (SOOS) forecasts. Alternatively, forecast models may be selected using information criteria (IC). We compare the asymptotic and...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009639853
for estimating the model parameters. In forecasting inflation, the central bank inflation target, if it exists, is a …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009640913
Among the harmful effects of inflation, the negative consequences of inflation volatility are of particular concern … inflation volatility. Major results are robust for unconditional and conditional inflation volatility, the latter derived from …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009636540
We lay out an empirical and a theoretical model to analyze the effects of non-fundamental exchange rate volatility on … of the conditional exogenous exchange rate volatility on the conditional mean of the endogenous variables in our open … empirically. In the second part, we investigate the effect of non-fundamental exchange rate volatility in a stochastic open …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009636551
In Lisbon the European Council proclaimed a European growth strategy. It considers an average economic u0093growth rate of around 3 percent as a realistic prospect for the coming yearsu0094 and assigns public finances an important role in the process of achieving this goal. This paper addresses...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009635955
We quantify the degree of persistence in unemployment rates of transition countries using a variety of methods benchmarked against the EU. In part of the paper, we work with the concept of linear u0093Hysteresisu0094 as described by the presence of unit roots in unemployment. Since this is...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009635980
In this paper we study the zero frequency spectral properties of fractionally cointegrated long memory processes and introduce a new frequency domain principal components estimator of the cointegration space and the factor loading matrix for the long memory factors. We find that for fractionally...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009636544
leverage and asset volatility. We conclude that the bilateral cross-sector exposures in the euro area financial system … financial intermediaries playing a key role in the processes. High financial leverage and high asset volatility are found to …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009640455
This paper considers the role of foreign investors in developed-country equity markets. It presents a quantitative … investors of different sophistication, and (ii) investor sophistication matters for performance in both public equity and … international equity trades: (i ) trading by US investors occurs in bursts of simultaneous buying and selling, (ii ) Americans build …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009636533