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Hubrich, Kirstin - 2003

Monitoring and forecasting price developments in the euro area is essential in the light of the second pillar of the ECBu0092s monetary policy strategy. This study analyses whether the forecasting accuracy of forecasting aggregate euro area inﬂation can be improved by aggregating forecasts of...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009635954

Inflation persistence during periods of structural change

Hondroyiannis, George; Lazaretou, Sophia - 2004

The paper estimates inflation persistence in Greece from 1975 to 2003, a period of high variation in inflation and … coefficient (RC) modelling, are employed to estimate inflation persistence. The empirical results from all the procedures suggest … that inflation persistence was high during the inflationary period and the first six years of the disinflationary period …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009639424

Euro area inflation forecasting

Benalal, Nicholai; Diaz del Hoyo, Juan Luis; Landau, Bettina - 2004

In this paper we investigate whether the forecast of the HICP components (indirect approach) improves upon the forecast of overall HICP (direct approach) and whether the aggregation of country forecasts improves upon the forecast of the euro-area as a whole, considering the four largest euro...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009639428

quantifying and forecasting inflation risks

Kilian, Lutz; Manganelli, Simone - 2003

situation poses to price stability. We propose to regard the central banker as a risk manager who aims to contain inflation …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009639841

Real time estimates of the euro area output gap

Marcellino, Massimiliano; Musso, Alberto - 2010

estimates for inflation forecasting both in the short term (one-quarter and one-year ahead) and the medium term (two-year and …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009640402

Pass-through of external shocks along the pricing chain

Landau, Bettina; Skudelny, Frauke - 2009

In this paper we analyse in a mark-up framework the pass-through of commodity price and exchange rate shocks to the main components of producer and consumer prices. Thereby we link movements in prices at the different production stages as firms set their prices as a mark-up over production...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009640483

Nowcasting inflation using high frequency data

Modugno, Michele - 2011

This paper proposes a methodology to nowcast and forecast inflation using data with sampling frequency higher than … accurate estimates of inflation for the current and followings months. In particular, this paper uses the Weekly Oil Bulletin …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009640700

Downward nominal wage rigidity and the long-run Philips Curve

Coenen, Günter - 2003

the determination of inflation and output in the euro area and the existence of a non-vertical long-run Phillips curve …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009635901

New Keynesian Phillips Curves

McAdam, Peter; Willman, Alpo - 2003

Using euro-area data, we re-examine the empirical success of New Keynesian Phillips Curves (NKPCs). The nature of our re-evaluation relies on the actual empirical underpinnings of such estimates: we find existing estimates un-robust and u0096 given that key parameters are generally calibrated...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009635912

Inflation and relative price asymmetry

Ratfai, Attila - 2004

By placing store-level price data into bivariate Structural VAR models of inflation and relative price asymmetry, this … forecast error variance in inflation at the 12-month horizon. While the contemporaneous correlation between inflation and … relative price asymmetry is positive, idiosyncratic shocks lead to a substantial build-up in inflation only after two to five …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009636524

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