Monitoring and forecasting price developments in the euro area is essential in the light of the second pillar of the … ECBu0092s monetary policy strategy. This study analyses whether the forecasting accuracy of forecasting aggregate euro area …) as opposed to forecasting the aggregate HICP directly. The analysis includes univariate and multivariate linear time …

1 has better and more robust forecasting properties for real GDP than yield spreads. This property persists when one … controls for a number of other influences. We also evaluate the out-of-sample forecasting performance of different classes of …