Hansson, Jesper; Jansson, Per; Löf, Mårten - Konjunkturinstitutet, Stockholm - 2003
This paper examines whether data from business tendency surveys are useful for forecasting the macro economy (GDP …, unemployment, price and wage inflation, interest rates, exchange-rate changes etc.) in the short run. The starting point is a so …-called dynamic factor model (DFM), which is used both as a framework for dimension reduction in forecasting and as a procedure for …