Monitoring and forecasting price developments in the euro area is essential in the light of the second pillar of the … ECBu0092s monetary policy strategy. This study analyses whether the forecasting accuracy of forecasting aggregate euro area …) as opposed to forecasting the aggregate HICP directly. The analysis includes univariate and multivariate linear time …

the determination of inflation and output in the euro area and the existence of a non-vertical long-run Phillips curve …

that the cyclical position and the form of fiscal governance are major determinants of forecast biases. Projected changes …

The paper presents an incomplete competition model (ICM), where inflation is determined jointly with unit labour cost … growth. The ICM is estimated on data for the Euro area and evaluated against existing models, i.e. the implicit inflation …. There is, however, some support in favour of the (reduced form) AWM inflation equation. It is the only model that …

business surveys data and to aggregate the nation-wide forecast into the Euro-zone forecast, we propose using an approach based …

This paper examines whether data from business tendency surveys are useful for forecasting the macro economy (GDP …, unemployment, price and wage inflation, interest rates, exchange-rate changes etc.) in the short run. The starting point is a so …-called dynamic factor model (DFM), which is used both as a framework for dimension reduction in forecasting and as a procedure for …