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Hubrich, Kirstin - 2003

Monitoring and forecasting price developments in the euro area is essential in the light of the second pillar of the ECBu0092s monetary policy strategy. This study analyses whether the forecasting accuracy of forecasting aggregate euro area inﬂation can be improved by aggregating forecasts of...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009635954

Equilibrium unemployment, job flows and inflation dynamics

Trigari, Antonella - 2004

In order to explain the joint fluctuations of output, inflation and the labor market, this paper first develops a … general equilibrium model that integrates a theory of equilibrium unemployment into a monetary model with nominal price … helps to explain the sluggishness of inflation and the persistence of output after a monetary policy shock. The ability of …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009636527

A structural common factor approach to core inflation estimation and forecasting

Morana, Claudio - 2004

principal components estimator, suited to estimate systems of fractionally cointegrated processes. The proposed core inflation … measure is the scaled common persistent factor in inflation and excess nominal money growth and bears the interpretation of … monetary inflation. The proposed measure is characterised by all the properties that an u0093idealu0094 core inflation process …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009636528

quantifying and forecasting inflation risks

Kilian, Lutz; Manganelli, Simone - 2003

situation poses to price stability. We propose to regard the central banker as a risk manager who aims to contain inflation …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009639841

Real time estimates of the euro area output gap

Marcellino, Massimiliano; Musso, Alberto - 2010

estimates for inflation forecasting both in the short term (one-quarter and one-year ahead) and the medium term (two-year and …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009640402

Inflation persistence and robust monetary policy design

Coenen, Günter - 2003

This paper investigates the performance of optimised interest rate rules when there is uncertainty about a key determinant of the monetary transmission mechanism, namely the degree of persistence characterising the inﬂation process. The paper focuses on the euro area and utilises two variants of...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009635885

Downward nominal wage rigidity and the long-run Philips Curve

Coenen, Günter - 2003

the determination of inflation and output in the euro area and the existence of a non-vertical long-run Phillips curve …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009635901

Inflation targets and the liquidity trap

Klaeffling, Matt; Perez, Victor Lopez - 2003

The presence of a lower bound of zero on nominal interest rates has important implications for the conduct of optimal monetary policy. Standard rational expectations models can have alternative steady states as well as non-unique laws of motion, i.e. there can be possible sunspot equilibria....

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009635903

The Great Depression and the Friedman-Schwartz hypothesis

Christiano, Lawrence; Motto, Roberto; Rostagno, Massimo - 2004

We evaluate the Friedman-Schwartz hypothesis that a more accommodative monetary policy could have greatly reduced the severity of the Great Depression. To do this, we first estimate a dynamic, general equilibrium model using data from the 1920s and 1930s. Although the model includes eight...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009636549

Is inflation persistence intrinsic in industrial economies?

Levin, Andrew T.; Piger, Jeremy M. - 2004

We apply both classical and Bayesian econometric methods to characterize the dynamic behavior of inflation for twelve … 1990s. Allowing for a break in intercept, the inflation measures generally exhibit relatively low inflation persistence …. Evidently, high inflation persistence is not an inherent characteristic of industrial economies. …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009636705

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