The first official data releases of quarterly real GDP for the euro area are published about eight weeks after the end of the reference quarters. Meanwhile, ongoing economic developments must be assessed from various, more readily available, monthly indicators. We examine in the context of...

This paper analyses the information content of M1 for euro area real GDP since the beginning of the 1980s and reviews theoretical arguments on why real narrow money should help predict real GDP. We find that, unlike in the U.S., in the euro area, M1 has better and more robust forecasting...

The EU15 countriesu0092 real GDP per capita levels adjusted for purchasing power converged in 1960u00962001. Convergence occurred in two spells, in 1960u009673 and 1986u00962001, with an interim period of stagnation. In this paper, we analyse both s and b convergence and discuss the impact of EU...

The study suggests that the EU's eastward enlargement will be beneficial to the new members, while most EU countries will record minor welfare gains. Poland is expected to gain 3.4% of GDP, and Hungary almost 7%. The new members will experience production increases across almost all sectors,...

Assessing existing policies or developing new policy options requires indicators showing where a community stands, where it is going and how far it is from where it wants to be. Indicators are necessary in all steps of the policy cycle: to describe the current situation/problem; to analyse the...

We apply both classical and Bayesian econometric methods to characterize the dynamic behavior of inflation for twelve industrial countries over the period 1984-2003, using four different price indices for each country. In particular, we estimate a univariate autoregressive (AR) model for each...

The main objectives of this synthesis of the geographical evaluations managed during the period 1998-2006 by the Joint Evaluation Unit (JEU) and the Delegations of the European Union in partner countries were as follows: i.to show the evolution of the Commission’s methodological approach to...