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We propose a method for estimating a subset of the parameters of a structural rational expectations model by exploiting changes in policy. We define a class of models, midway between a vector autoregression and a structural model, that we call the recoverable structure. As an application of our...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009635894
This paper analyses the information content of M1 for euro area real GDP since the beginning of the 1980s and reviews theoretical arguments on why real narrow money should help predict real GDP. We find that, unlike in the U.S., in the euro area, M1 has better and more robust forecasting...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009635922
Recent empirical studies on the inflation-growth-relationship underline that inflation has negative growth effects … already under relatively modest rates. Most contributions to monetary growth theory, however, have difficulties in explaining … influence of inflation on factor substitution. It turns out that already in a simple neoclassical monetary growth model this …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009635886
Equilibrium correction models of the price level are often used to model inflation. Such models assume that the long …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009636529
-oil import price shocks to euro area inflation at different stages of distribution (import prices, producer prices and consumer … large fraction of the variance in all price indices. They seem to have contributed largely to inflation in the euro area …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009635958
A central puzzle in international finance is that real exchange rates are volatile and, in stark contradiction to effcient risk-sharing, negatively correlated with cross-country consumption ratios. This paper shows that incomplete asset markets and a low price elasticity of tradables can account...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009636531
This paper provides a simple weekly model of the regular supply of liquidity in the euro area, with a view to understanding the functioning of the euro area money market. The main result of the analysis is that liquidity has normally been provided by the ECB in a neutral and smooth manner, but...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009635957
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009686312
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012036352
This paper offers an alternative explanation for the behavior of postwar US inflation by measuring a novel source of … end up generating a systematic inflation bias through the private sector expectations of a larger policy response in … recessions than in booms. Reduced-form estimates of US monetary policy rules indicate that while the inflation target declines …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009635891