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Pass-through of external shocks to euro area inflation
Hahn, Elke - 2003
This paper investigates the pass-through of external shocks, i.e. oil price shocks, exchange rate shocks, and non-oil import price shocks to euro area inflation at different stages of distribution (import prices, producer prices and consumer prices). The analysis is based on a VAR model that...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009635958
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Equilibrium unemployment, job flows and inflation dynamics
Trigari, Antonella - 2004
application of the minimum distance estimation. The estimated model can explain the cyclical behavior of employment, hours per … worker, job creation and job destruction conditional on a shock to monetary policy. Moreover, allowing for variation of the … helps to explain the sluggishness of inflation and the persistence of output after a monetary policy shock. The ability of …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009636527
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Interpolation and backdating with a large information set
Angelini, Elena; Henry, Jérôme; Marcellino, Massimiliano - 2003
Existing methods for data interpolation or backdating are either univariate or based on a very limited number of series, due to data and computing constraints that were binding until the recent past. Nowadays large datasets are readily available, and models with hundreds of parameters are fastly...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009635924
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Interpolation and backdating with a large information set
Angelini, Elena; Henry, Jérôme; Marcellino, Massimiliano - 2003
Existing methods for data interpolation or backdating are either univariate or based on a very limited number of series, due to data and computing constraints that were binding until the recent past. Nowadays large datasets are readily available, and models with hundreds of parameters are fastly...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009640916
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Predicting recession probabilities with financial variables over multiple horizons
Fornari, Fabio; Lemke, Wolfgang - 2010
We forecast recession probabilities for the United States, Germany and Japan. The predictions are based on the widely-used probit approach, but the dynamics of regressors are endogenized using a VAR. The combined model is called a ‘ProbVAR’. At any point in time, the ProbVAR allows to...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009640285
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Forecasting with DSGE models
Christoffel, Kai; Coenen, Günter; Warne, Anders - 2010
on the estimation of their predictive distributions, with special attention being paid to the mean and the covariance …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009640356
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Identifying fiscal shocks and policy regimes in OECD countries
Arcangelis, Giuseppe de; Lamartina, Serena - 2003
The aim of this paper is twofold. First, for West Germany, France, Italy and US, we econometrically select within a SVAR model some fiscal policy regimes, i.e. a u0094set of rulesu0094 for the implementation of fiscal policies. Second, we identify the fiscal policy shocks related to different...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009635887
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Measuring contagion with a Bayesian, time-varying coefficient model
Ciccarelli, Matteo; Rebucci, Alessandro - 2003
To measure contagion empirically, we propose using a Bayesian time-varying coefficient model estimated with Markov ChainMonte Carlo methods. The proposed measure works in the joint presence of heteroskedasticity and omitted variables and does not require knowledge of the timing of the crisis. It...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009635914
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Measurement of contagion in banks' equity prices
Gropp, Reint; Moerman, Gerard - 2003
This paper uses the co-incidence of extreme shocks to banksu0092 risk to examine within country and across country contagion among large EU banks. Banksu0092 risk is measured by the first difference of weekly distances to default and abnormal returns. Using Monte Carlo simulations, the paper...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009636520
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Inflation and relative price asymmetry
Ratfai, Attila - 2004
By placing store-level price data into bivariate Structural VAR models of inflation and relative price asymmetry, this study evaluates the quantitative importance of idiosyncratic pricing shocks in short-run aggregate price change dynamics. Robustly to alternative definitions of the relative...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009636524