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This study examines empirically the information content of the euro area Bank Lending Survey for aggregate credit and … leading indicator for euro area bank credit and real GDP growth. Notwithstanding the short history of the survey, the findings … also suggest that price as well as non-price conditions and terms of credit standards do matter for credit and business …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009640399
This paper aims to shed light on the characteristics and particularly the determinants of credit-less recoveries. After … building a dataset and documenting some stylised facts of credit-less recoveries in emerging market economies, this paper uses … panel probit models to analyse key determinants of credit-less recoveries. Our main findings are the following. First, our …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009640847
We derive fundamental new theory for measuring monetary service flows aggregated over countries within the European Monetary Union (EMU). We develop three increasingly restrictive approaches: (1) the heterogeneous agents approach, (2) the multilateral representative agent approach, and (3) the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009635917
We forecast recession probabilities for the United States, Germany and Japan. The predictions are based on the widely-used probit approach, but the dynamics of regressors are endogenized using a VAR. The combined model is called a ‘ProbVAR’. At any point in time, the ProbVAR allows to...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009640285
In this paper we review the methodology of forecasting with log-linearised DSGE models using Bayesian methods. We focus on the estimation of their predictive distributions, with special attention being paid to the mean and the covariance matrix of h-step ahead forecasts. In the empirical...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009640356
There has been much discussion of the differences in macroeconomic performance and prospects between the US, Japan and the euro area. Using Markov-switching techniques, in this paper we identify and compare specifically their major business-cycle features and examine the case for a common...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009635889
This monthly monetary model for the euro area is gradually constructed from its two constituting components: a money demand and a loan demand model which both include the relation between the respective retail bank rates and the short-term market interest rate. Eventually, the encompassing...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009635913