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Engel, Charles; West, Kenneth David - 2003

Standard economic models hold that exchange rates are influenced by fundamental variables such as relative money supplies, outputs, inflation rates and interest rates. Nonetheless, it has been well documented that such variables little help predict changes in floating exchange rates u0097 that...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009635953

Exchange rate risks and asset prices in a small open economy

Derviz, Alexis - 2004

The paper proposes a multi-factor international asset pricing model in which the exchange rate is allowed to be co-determined by a risk factor imperfectly correlated to other priced risks in the economy. The significance of this factor can be established as long as one is able to observe a proxy...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009636537

Non-fundamental exchange rate volatility and welfare

Straub, Roland; Tchakarov, Ivan - 2004

We lay out an empirical and a theoretical model to analyze the effects of non-fundamental exchange rate volatility on economic activity and welfare. In the first part of the paper, the GARCH-SVARmodel is applied to measure empirically the effect of the conditional exogenous exchange rate...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009636551

Comparing economic dynamics in the EU and CEE accession countries

Süppel, Ralph - 2003

This paper presents evidence for structural differences in economic growth dynamics between the current EU and the central- and eastern European accession countries. Two important results emerge from the analysis. First, accession countries have posted higher average growth and wider output...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009635910

Fundamentals and joint currency crises

Hartmann, Philipp; Straetmans, Stefan; Vries, Casper de - 2004

In this note we demonstrate that in affine models for bilateral exchange rates, the nature of return interdependence during crises depends on the tail properties of the fundamentals' distributions. We denote crisis linkages as either strong or weak, in the sense that the dependence remains or...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009636547

Aggregation-theoretic monetary aggregation over the euro area, when countries are heterogeneous

Barnett, William A. - 2003

We derive fundamental new theory for measuring monetary service flows aggregated over countries within the European … aggregation over countries. Our theory permits monitoring the effects of policy at the aggregate level over the euro area, while …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009635917

The impact of monetary union on trade prices

Anderton, Robert; Baldwin, Richard E.; Taglioni, Daria - 2003

Two seemingly unconnected empirical results suggest an intriguing mechanism. First, economic integration helps harmonize prices internationally, with trade being the primary channel (Rogoff 1996, Goldberg and Knetter 1997). Second, monetary union may greatly increase the amount of trade among...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009635969

Towards the estimation of equilibrium exchange rates for CEE acceding countries

Maeso-Fernandez, Francisco; Osbat, Chiara; Schnatz, Bernd - 2004

This paper provides a discussion of methodological issues relating to the estimation of the long-run relationship between exchange rates and fundamentals for Central and Eastern European acceding countries, focusing on the so-called behavioural equilibrium exchange rate (BEER) approach. Given...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009639407

Production interdependence and welfare

Huang, Kevin X. D.; Liu, Zheng - 2004

, we incorporate multiple stages of production and trade into a standard NEOM model to capture world production … interdependence, and show that increased world production interdependence tends to magnify the e±ciency-improvement effect while … potential conflict in a world with production interdependence. …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009639409

Communication and exchange rate policy

Fratzscher, Marcel - 2004

This paper deals with the very short-term influence of "oral interventions" on the exchange rate of major currencies. The paper finds that official communication, as reported by wire services, are effective in influencing the US dollar-euro and yen-US dollar exchange rates in the desired...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009639417

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