In this paper we propose a relatively simple procedure to predict Euro-zone industrial production using mostly data derived from the business surveys of the three major economies within the European Monetary Union (France, Germany, and Italy). The basic idea is that of estimating business...

Since September 2004, Insee has published the results of its business survey in the services sector on a monthly basis together with a synthetic indicator. This indicator is extracted from both monthly and quarterly balances of opinion derived from the survey. The methodological framework is...

Using a classification method developed in this paper, the quality of qualitative survey data of the manufacturing industry at micro-economic level is investigated. For single companies, recent opinions on recent production developments are compared to quantitative results of industrial...

The quarterly survey of investment in industry, conducted by the National Institute for Statistics and Economic Studies (INSEE) is a prime source of information concerning short-term evolutions in productive investment, making it possible to estimate these evolutions at an early stage and with...

The answers to qualitative questions put to economic operators can be integrated in standard macro-economic analysis by using a "quantification" procedure chosen among the probabilistic approach, the regression methods or the latent factor approach. The first one is the most commonly used. It is...

There has been much discussion of the differences in macroeconomic performance and prospects between the US, Japan and the euro area. Using Markov-switching techniques, in this paper we identify and compare specifically their major business-cycle features and examine the case for a common...

This paper analyses the information content of M1 for euro area real GDP since the beginning of the 1980s and reviews theoretical arguments on why real narrow money should help predict real GDP. We find that, unlike in the U.S., in the euro area, M1 has better and more robust forecasting...

The Project’s general objective is to promote renewable energies in the more underprivileged countries to help improve the living conditions of rural communities, supporting them in their fight against poverty, isolation and the marginalisation resulting from their socioeconomic conditions.