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series models and distinguishes between different forecast horizons, HICP components and inflation measures. Various … indicate that aggregating forecasts by component does not necessarily help forecast year-on-year inflation twelve months …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009635954
that the cyclical position and the form of fiscal governance are major determinants of forecast biases. Projected changes …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009636530
encompasses a general unrestricted model and it forecast encompasses the competitors when tested on 20 quarters of one step ahead …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009636545
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009668633
business surveys data and to aggregate the nation-wide forecast into the Euro-zone forecast, we propose using an approach based …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011291665
This paper examines whether data from business tendency surveys are useful for forecasting the macro economy (GDP, unemployment, price and wage inflation, interest rates, exchange-rate changes etc.) in the short run. The starting point is a so-called dynamic factor model (DFM), which is used...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011291666
Since September 2004, Insee has published the results of its business survey in the services sector on a monthly basis together with a synthetic indicator. This indicator is extracted from both monthly and quarterly balances of opinion derived from the survey. The methodological framework is...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011291667
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011661247
The study analyses macroeconomic policy-making in the European Union and the role of the European Parliament in it. There are three parts to the study. The first is concerned with policy-making procedures. The second analyses the implementation of the Broad Economic Policy Guidelines (BEPGs) and...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009636097
This paper analyses the information content of M1 for euro area real GDP since the beginning of the 1980s and reviews theoretical arguments on why real narrow money should help predict real GDP. We find that, unlike in the U.S., in the euro area, M1 has better and more robust forecasting...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009635922