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This paper uses data on German government bond futures options to examine the behaviour of market expectations around … monetary policy actions of the European Central Bank (ECB). In particular, this paper focuses on the asymmetries in bond market … expectations, as measured by the skewness of option-implied probability distributions of future bond yields. The results show that …
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premia in bond prices. Moreover, the estimated premia vary over time in a quantitatively significant way, which implies that …
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Traditional Taylor rules, which are estimated using a level specification linking the short-term interest rate to inflation and the output gap, are unstable when estimated on euro area data and forecast poorly out of sample. We present an alternative reaction function which takes the...
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tested using a probit model. The yield spread between the ten-year government bond rate and the threemonth interbank rate …
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