In this note we demonstrate that in affine models for bilateral exchange rates, the nature of return interdependence during crises depends on the tail properties of the fundamentals' distributions. We denote crisis linkages as either strong or weak, in the sense that the dependence remains or...

Standard economic models hold that exchange rates are influenced by fundamental variables such as relative money supplies, outputs, inflation rates and interest rates. Nonetheless, it has been well documented that such variables little help predict changes in floating exchange rates u0097 that...

The paper proposes a multi-factor international asset pricing model in which the exchange rate is allowed to be co-determined by a risk factor imperfectly correlated to other priced risks in the economy. The significance of this factor can be established as long as one is able to observe a proxy...

This paper presents evidence for structural differences in economic growth dynamics between the current EU and the central- and eastern European accession countries. Two important results emerge from the analysis. First, accession countries have posted higher average growth and wider output...

We lay out an empirical and a theoretical model to analyze the effects of non-fundamental exchange rate volatility on economic activity and welfare. In the first part of the paper, the GARCH-SVARmodel is applied to measure empirically the effect of the conditional exogenous exchange rate...

A central puzzle in international finance is that real exchange rates are volatile and, in stark contradiction to effcient risk-sharing, negatively correlated with cross-country consumption ratios. This paper shows that incomplete asset markets and a low price elasticity of tradables can account...

With very low unemployment, a large and stable current account surplus, low government debt and a budget in surplus, the Dutch economy was assessed initially to be relatively well prepared to weather the financial and economic crisis. In 2008, however, the negative effects of the financial...

The financial crisis may pose a risk as well as offer an opportunity for the European defence sector: on the one hand, it sounds plausible that shrinking budgets increase the pressure on member states to cooperate and thus overcome the EU’s problems related to capability development and...

Overall, household debt levels have risen sharply over the past decades in EU Member States. While certain levels of household debts can be beneficial, they can become problematic especially with a sudden, unexpected decrease of incomes or increase of expenditures. The current financial crisis...

Household over-indebtedness is among the causes of the current financial crisis. In turn, the crisis exacerbated both public and private debt problems. In this paper, household over-indebtedness is broadly defined as the situation where a household cannot comply with payment requirements –...