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Equilibrium unemployment, job flows and inflation dynamics

Trigari, Antonella - 2004

In order to explain the joint fluctuations of output, inflation and the labor market, this paper first develops a … helps to explain the sluggishness of inflation and the persistence of output after a monetary policy shock. The ability of … the model to account for the joint dynamics of output and inflation rely on its ability to explain the dynamics in the …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009636527

Inflation persistence and robust monetary policy design

Coenen, Günter - 2003

This paper investigates the performance of optimised interest rate rules when there is uncertainty about a key determinant of the monetary transmission mechanism, namely the degree of persistence characterising the inﬂation process. The paper focuses on the euro area and utilises two variants of...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009635885

Measuring the time-inconsistency of US monetary policy

Surico, Paolo - 2003

This paper offers an alternative explanation for the behavior of postwar US inflation by measuring a novel source of … end up generating a systematic inflation bias through the private sector expectations of a larger policy response in … recessions than in booms. Reduced-form estimates of US monetary policy rules indicate that while the inflation target declines …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009635891

US, Japan and the euro area

McAdam, Peter - 2003

There has been much discussion of the differences in macroeconomic performance and prospects between the US, Japan and the euro area. Using Markov-switching techniques, in this paper we identify and compare specifically their major business-cycle features and examine the case for a common...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009635889

On the indeterminacy of determinacy and indeterminacy

Beyer, Andreas; Farmer, Roger E. A. - 2003

A number of authors have attemted to test whether the U.S. economy is in a determinate or an indeterminate equilibrium. We argue that to answer this question, one must be impose a priori restrictions on lag length that cannot be tested. We provide examples of two economic models. Model 1...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009635896

Forecasting real GDP

Brand, Claus; Reimers, Hans-Eggert; Seitz, Franz - 2003

This paper analyses the information content of M1 for euro area real GDP since the beginning of the 1980s and reviews theoretical arguments on why real narrow money should help predict real GDP. We find that, unlike in the U.S., in the euro area, M1 has better and more robust forecasting...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009635922

The Great Depression and the Friedman-Schwartz hypothesis

Christiano, Lawrence; Motto, Roberto; Rostagno, Massimo - 2004

We evaluate the Friedman-Schwartz hypothesis that a more accommodative monetary policy could have greatly reduced the severity of the Great Depression. To do this, we first estimate a dynamic, general equilibrium model using data from the 1920s and 1930s. Although the model includes eight...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009636549

Consumer inflation expectations in Poland

£yziak, Tomasz - 2003

Inflation expectations constitute a subject of particular contemporary interest to central banks, especially those … pursuing a monetary policy based on a strategy of direct inflation targeting. Macroeconomic theory indicates that the … to properties of inflation expectations. Qualitative data on inflation expectations, as obtained from surveys, can be …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009635882

15. CEIES-Seminar : Inflation in Europa u0097 Unterschiedliche Messkonzepte und deren Nutzer ; Berlin, 4. und 5. Oktober 2001

Europäische Kommission / Statistisches Amt - 2002

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009637069

Inflation, factor substitution and growth

Klump, Rainer - 2003

Recent empirical studies on the inflation-growth-relationship underline that inflation has negative growth effects … influence of inflation on factor substitution. It turns out that already in a simple neoclassical monetary growth model this … potential positive effects of inflation along the convergence path. In a more general perspective the paper contributes to a …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009635886