We construct and estimate a joint model of macroeconomic and yield curve dynamics. A small-scale rational expectations model describes the macroeconomy. Bond yields are affine functions of the state variables of the macromodel, and are derived assuming absence of arbitrage opportunities and a...

We propose a method for estimating a subset of the parameters of a structural rational expectations model by exploiting changes in policy. We define a class of models, midway between a vector autoregression and a structural model, that we call the recoverable structure. As an application of our...

We use a novel disaggregate sectoral euro area data set with a regional breakdown to investigate price changes and suggest a new method to extract factors from over-lapping data blocks. This allows us to separately estimate aggregate, sectoral, country-specific and regional components of price...

The aim of this paper is to assess whether explicitly modeling structural change increases the accuracy of macroeconomic forecasts. We produce real time out-of-sample forecasts for inflation, the unemployment rate and the interest rate using a Time-Varying Coefficients VAR with Stochastic...

Policy counterfactuals based on estimated structural VARs routinely suggest that bringing Alan Greenspan back in the 1970s’ United States would not have prevented the Great Inflation. We show that a standard policy counterfactual suggests that the Bundesbank–which is near-universally...

We propose a new method for medium-term forecasting using exogenous information. We first show how a shifting-mean autoregressive model can be used to describe characteristic features in inflation series. This implies that we decompose the inflation process into a slowly moving nonstationary...

Given the consolidation needs and the provisions of the new fiscal rule, budgetary planning in Germany has become more demanding. Fiscal projections are already difficult since the link between total tax revenue and economic activity is observed to be unstable. This Country Focus identifies...

This study focuses on the most important drivers of the swift current account rebalancing which is taking place in Estonia and considers the possible way forward. After very large deficits in the boom years (2005-2007), Estonia's current account balance turned positive in the downturn, as...

Romania's domestic demand boom over the past few years has led to rapidly widening current account deficits, reaching an estimated 13½% of GDP in 2008. High private sector dissaving has been exacerbated by a procycylical fiscal policy, with the public deficit likely to exceed 3% of GDP in 2008....

Measuring public sector efficiency is not generally straightforward and presents a difficult empirical issue, specifically in terms of adequate measurement of costs and outcomes. This Country Focus attempts to measure the efficiency of public spending in Malta by applying two alternative...