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Forecasting real GDP
Brand, Claus; Reimers, Hans-Eggert; Seitz, Franz - 2003
This paper analyses the information content of M1 for euro area real GDP since the beginning of the 1980s and reviews theoretical arguments on why real narrow money should help predict real GDP. We find that, unlike in the U.S., in the euro area, M1 has better and more robust forecasting...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009635922
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Business cycles, quality of economic policy and government revenues in Poland
Rutkowski, Aleksander - 2008
The volatility of general government tax revenues has increased in Poland in recent years. The correlation between GDP growth and revenue growth appears to be lower in Poland than in many other EU Member States, which suggests that the instability of its revenues has a different. This Country...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009641087
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Ceilings and anchors: fiscal rules for Poland
Rutkowski, Aleksander - 2007
National fiscal frameworks can complement the EU budgetary surveillance procedure. Poland has traditionally had a debt rule, but it did not discourage governments from running high deficits. High expenditure (mainly on social benefits) has been identified as one of the main sources of large...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009641139
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US, Japan and the euro area
McAdam, Peter - 2003
There has been much discussion of the differences in macroeconomic performance and prospects between the US, Japan and the euro area. Using Markov-switching techniques, in this paper we identify and compare specifically their major business-cycle features and examine the case for a common...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009635889
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On the indeterminacy of determinacy and indeterminacy
Beyer, Andreas; Farmer, Roger E. A. - 2003
A number of authors have attemted to test whether the U.S. economy is in a determinate or an indeterminate equilibrium. We argue that to answer this question, one must be impose a priori restrictions on lag length that cannot be tested. We provide examples of two economic models. Model 1...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009635896
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Equilibrium unemployment, job flows and inflation dynamics
Trigari, Antonella - 2004
application of the minimum distance estimation. The estimated model can explain the cyclical behavior of employment, hours per …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009636527
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The Great Depression and the Friedman-Schwartz hypothesis
Christiano, Lawrence; Motto, Roberto; Rostagno, Massimo - 2004
We evaluate the Friedman-Schwartz hypothesis that a more accommodative monetary policy could have greatly reduced the severity of the Great Depression. To do this, we first estimate a dynamic, general equilibrium model using data from the 1920s and 1930s. Although the model includes eight...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009636549
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Optimal dynamic risk sharing when enforcement is a decision variable
Koeppl, Thorsten V. - 2003
decision problem of using self-governance for risk sharing or governance through enforcement provided by these institutions … prevent first-best risk sharing, but never optimal to provide incentives exclusively via this technology. Commitment problems …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009635888
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Growth expectations, capital flows and international risk sharing
Castrén, Olli; Miller, Marcus; Stiegert, Roger - 2003
international equity transactions that accentuate the role of international risk sharing as a factor for the macroeconomic response … shock affecting only one country. Efficient global risk-sharing imply that expected productivity gains in one country will … for the productivity gains can further increase the risk exposure of foreign shareholders. The model is calibrated to show …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009635970
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Late lessons from early warnings
Gee, David (contributor); Guedes Vaz, Sofia (contributor);  … - Europäische Umweltagentur; European Environment Agency - 2002
This report is about gathering information on the hazards raised by human economic activities and its use in taking action to protect better the environment and the health of the species and ecosystems that are dependent on it. The study aims to contribute to better and more accessible...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009635974