We test the interest rate sensitivity of subprime credit card borrowers using a unique panel data set from a UK credit card company. What is novel about our contribution is that we were given details of a randomized interest rate experiment conducted by the lender between October 2006 and...

This Country Focus discusses the relation between public investment and economic growth in Poland. Theoretical and empirical work has shown that improvements in the quantity and quality of public infrastructure have a positive impact on growth in the medium and, possibly, in the long run. The...

Following several years of low growth Germany is presently enjoying a relatively strong recovery. With unemployment falling at record speed and fiscal consolidation progressing, the upswing is set to continue in spite of uncertainties surrounding the VAT increase of January 2007. This Country...

The Czech financial sector has changed dramatically since transition. In fifteen years, it has developed from a state-owned mono-bank into a privatised bank-based financial system with developing capital and private equity markets. This country focus analyses the development of the financial...

This paper presents new evidence on the social returns to education within a macroeconomic growth regression framework. I use improved schooling data and a macro version of the Mincer relationship between education and wages for individual workers. The results suggest that an increase by one...

This paper investigates the average impact of government debt on per-capita GDP growth in twelve euro area countries over a period of about 40 years starting in 1970. It finds a non-linear impact of debt on growth with a turning point—beyond which the government debt-to-GDP ratio has a...

The number of variables related to long-run economic growth is large compared with the number of countries. Bayesian model averaging is often used to impose parsimony in the cross-country growth regression. The underlying prior is that many of the considered variables need to be excluded from...

We explore a view of the crisis as a shock to investor sentiment that led to the collapse of a bubble or pyramid scheme in financial markets. We embed this view in a standard model of the financial accelerator and explore its empirical and policy implications. In particular, we show how the...

Since 1995 Germany has barely managed to grow by 1.2% annually, with growth over the last four years averaging only 0.6%. In 2005, growth will again be below1%. With these low growth rates Germany has clearly fallen behind all the other European countries. The German economy is suffering from a...

While there has been some recovery since the depths of the Great Recession in 2009, both output and employment levels remain lower than they were pre-crisis in the EU-27. Indeed, the severity of the recession has been such that output has yet to return to 2007 levels in each of the largest...