There has been much discussion of the differences in macroeconomic performance and prospects between the US, Japan and the euro area. Using Markov-switching techniques, in this paper we identify and compare specifically their major business-cycle features and examine the case for a common...

This paper analyses the international transmission of monetary shocks with a special focus on the effects of foreign money ("global liquidity") on the euro area. We estimate structural VAR models for the euro area and the global economy including a global liquidity aggregate. The impulse...

This paper develops a framework for assessing systemic risks and for predicting (out-of-sample) systemic events, i.e. periods of extreme financial instability with potential real costs. We test the ability of a wide range of “stand alone” and composite indicators in predicting systemic...

Das Institut für Weltwirtschaft an der Universität Kiel (IfW) ist eines der großen Zentren weltwirtschaftlicher Forschung, wirtschaftspolitischer Beratung, ökonomischer Ausbildung und wirtschaftswissenschaftlicher Dokumentation. Das Institut sieht seine Hauptaufgabe in der Erforschung...

The CEPII is France's leading institute for research on the international economy. The Centre's independence is guaranteed by its Board, which sets out the strategic guidelines for the CEPII's research. The Board comprises government officials, business personalities, trade unionists and...

The worldwide banking system is at the heart of the greatest economic crisis for at least 70 years. The crisis has strongly affected a sector that had already experienced significant changes in the preceding 30 years. Structural changes in the world economy, caused by globalisation processes and...