We lay out an empirical and a theoretical model to analyze the effects of non-fundamental exchange rate volatility on … of the conditional exogenous exchange rate volatility on the conditional mean of the endogenous variables in our open … empirically. In the second part, we investigate the effect of non-fundamental exchange rate volatility in a stochastic open …

encompasses a general unrestricted model and it forecast encompasses the competitors when tested on 20 quarters of one step ahead …

Monitoring and forecasting price developments in the euro area is essential in the light of the second pillar of the … ECBu0092s monetary policy strategy. This study analyses whether the forecasting accuracy of forecasting aggregate euro area …) as opposed to forecasting the aggregate HICP directly. The analysis includes univariate and multivariate linear time …

that the cyclical position and the form of fiscal governance are major determinants of forecast biases. Projected changes …

business surveys data and to aggregate the nation-wide forecast into the Euro-zone forecast, we propose using an approach based …

This paper examines whether data from business tendency surveys are useful for forecasting the macro economy (GDP …-called dynamic factor model (DFM), which is used both as a framework for dimension reduction in forecasting and as a procedure for … forecasting performance of the procedure, comparisons are made with VARs that either use the survey variables directly, are based …