In this paper we propose a relatively simple procedure to predict Euro-zone industrial production using mostly data derived from the business surveys of the three major economies within the European Monetary Union (France, Germany, and Italy). The basic idea is that of estimating business...

This paper examines whether data from business tendency surveys are useful for forecasting the macro economy (GDP, unemployment, price and wage inflation, interest rates, exchange-rate changes etc.) in the short run. The starting point is a so-called dynamic factor model (DFM), which is used...

Since September 2004, Insee has published the results of its business survey in the services sector on a monthly basis together with a synthetic indicator. This indicator is extracted from both monthly and quarterly balances of opinion derived from the survey. The methodological framework is...

This document offers strategic recommendations to the European Commission on how the Secure Societies Theme in Horizon 2020 should be developed to address the longer-term priorities and opportunities. In developing this strategic recommendation the SSAG has considered a wide range of factors...

The Secure Societies Advisory Group (SSAG) has considered the strategic priorities that should shape the H2020 programme for the 2016/2017...

Monitoring and forecasting price developments in the euro area is essential in the light of the second pillar of the ECBu0092s monetary policy strategy. This study analyses whether the forecasting accuracy of forecasting aggregate euro area inflation can be improved by aggregating forecasts of...

The study analyses macroeconomic policy-making in the European Union and the role of the European Parliament in it. There are three parts to the study. The first is concerned with policy-making procedures. The second analyses the implementation of the Broad Economic Policy Guidelines (BEPGs) and...