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A time-varying parameter vector autoregression model for forecasting emerging market exchange rates
Kumar, Manish - In: International journal of economic sciences and applied … 3 (2010) 2, pp. 21-39
In this study, a vector autoregression (VAR) model with time-varying parameters (TVP) to predict the daily Indian rupee (INR)/US dollar (USD) exchange rates for the Indian economy is developed. The method is based on characterization of the TVP as an optimal control problem. The methodology is a...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009958060
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Volatility shifts and persistence in variance : evidence from the sector indices of Istanbul Stock Exchange
Çağlı, Efe Çağlar; Mandacı, Pınar Evrim; … - In: International journal of economic sciences and applied … 4 (2011) 3, pp. 119-140
This study examines the impact of volatility shifts on volatility persistence for three major sector indices of Istanbul Stock Exchange (ISE) and ISE National 100 index over the period beginning from 1997 and ending in 2009. The exponential generalized autoregressive conditional...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009958079
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Modeling stock market indexes with copula functions
Leśkow, Jacek; Mokrzycka, Justyna; Krawiec, Kamil - In: E-Finanse : finansowy kwartalnik internetowy 7 (2011) 2, pp. 1-16
Contemporary financial risk management is significantly based on the analysis of time series of returns. One of the most significant errors frequently committed by analysts is the predominant use of normal distributions when it is clear that the returns are not normal. Copula models and models...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009959716
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Global imbalances in current account balances
Bildirici, Melike; Kayıkçı, Fazil - In: Journal of applied finance & banking 2 (2012) 6, pp. 83-93
Persistent current account deficits were observed in some developing countries that are received substantial foreign capital in the last decades. This has raised the issue of sustainability and increased the volume of studies about the measures of sustainable current account deficits in the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010118422
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Seasonal adjustment versus seasonality modelling : effect on tourism demand forecasting
Gasmi, Amira - In: Advances in management & applied economics 3 (2013) 4, pp. 119-132
In this study, we treat the seasonal variation in monthly time series in the context of the Western-European tourism demand for Tunisia, by presenting different techniques of detection of seasonality and the parametric and non-parametric approaches of seasonal adjustment. Then, we compare the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010148054
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Algunas observaciones acerca del uso de software en la estimación del modelo Half-Normal
Ortega Irizo, Francisco Javier; Gavilán Ruiz, José Manuel - In: Revista de métodos cuantitativos para la economía y … 11 (2011), pp. 3-16
Using the maximum likelihood method, in order to estimate Half-Normal stochastic frontier production models, entails several practical di±culties that, perhaps, have not been su±ciently emphasised. In employing FRONTIER software, we analyse the case in which the estimation obtained suggests...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009957389
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On the importance of the arrival of new information
Chumacero, Rómulo A. - In: Estudios de economía 37 (2010) 2, pp. 207-215
methodology is applied to analyze the Chilean CPI inflation. -- news ; innovation ; outlier ; influential analysis …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009959113
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Volatility modeling for forecasting stock index with fixed parameter distributional assumption
Rahman, Md. Mostafizur; Rahman, Md. Azizur; Hossain, … - In: Journal of applied finance & banking 3 (2013) 1, pp. 109-122
The aim of this paper is to empirically investigate the in sample and out of sample forecasting performance of several GARCH-type models such as GARCH, EGARCH and APARCH model with Gaussian, student-t, Generalized error distribution (GED), student-t with fixed DOF 10 and GED with fixed parameter...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010118432
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The New Keynesian Phillips Curve in an inflation targeting country : the case of Turkey
Gozgor, Giray - In: International journal of economic sciences and applied … 6 (2013) 1, pp. 7-18
The possible short-run trade-off between the inflation (gap) and the output (gap) remains a critical policy issue for … any emerging economy; particularly when an implicit or an explicit inflation targeting monetary policy is considered. The … New Keynesian Phillips Curve (NKPC) has recently set up a framework on the trade-off between the inflation (gap) and the …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010160677
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Spurious rejections by Dickey-Fuller tests in the presence of an endogenously determined break under the null
Badillo Amador, Rosa; Belaire Franch, Jorge; Reverte … - In: Revista de métodos cuantitativos para la economía y … 9 (2010), pp. 3-16
Leybourne et al. (1998) have proved the possibility of a `converse Perron phenomenon' when conventional Dickey-Fuller tests are applied to deter-mine the order of integration of a time series. That is, if the true generating process is I(1) but with a break, frequent spurious rejections of the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009957378