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A time-varying parameter vector autoregression model for forecasting emerging market exchange rates

Kumar, Manish - In: International journal of economic sciences and applied … 3 (2010) 2, pp. 21-39

. The out-of-sample forecasting performance of the TVP-VAR model is evaluated against the simple VAR and ARIMA models, by … consistently outperforms the simple VAR and ARIMA models. -- stock prices ; exchange rates ; bivariate causality ; forecasting …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009958060

On the importance of the arrival of new information

Chumacero, Rómulo A. - In: Estudios de economía 37 (2010) 2, pp. 207-215

This paper develops a framework for evaluating the importance of the arrival of new information for forecasting …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009959113

Volatility modeling for forecasting stock index with fixed parameter distributional assumption

Rahman, Md. Mostafizur; Rahman, Md. Azizur; Hossain, … - In: Journal of applied finance & banking 3 (2013) 1, pp. 109-122

The aim of this paper is to empirically investigate the in sample and out of sample forecasting performance of several … observations for out of sample forecasting evaluation. Our empirical study showed that fixed DOF 10 of student-t density and fixed … out-of-sample forecasting performance we found that APARCH model with all distributional assumption give lower value of …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010118432

Seasonal adjustment versus seasonality modelling : effect on tourism demand forecasting

Gasmi, Amira - In: Advances in management & applied economics 3 (2013) 4, pp. 119-132

-parametric approaches of seasonal adjustment. Then, we compare the forecasting performance of these methods. The empirical results militate … in favour of the TRAMO-SEATS method. In fact, this approach provides the best forecast. In terms of forecasting …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010148054

Hedging Italian equity mutual fund returns during the recent financial turmoil : a duration-dependent Markov-switching approach

Zagaglia, Paolo - In: Journal of applied finance & banking 3 (2013) 3, pp. 325-337

We study optimal hedging design for returns on an Italian equity mutual fund index since 2008. Alternative hedging instruments include one-month futures contracts for FTSE-MIB, FTSE100 and Xetra DAX. We use bivariate models of our Italian equity mutual fund index and each hedging instrument to...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010148077

Sources of inflation in developing countries : evidence from some West African countries

Oladipo, Olajide S.; Ntoko, Alfred; Forrester, Wayne - In: Advances in management & applied economics 3 (2013) 2, pp. 83-102

The paper examines the determinants of inflation in some West African countries. Using the Johansen technique and time series between 1970q1 and 2010q4 the study determines whether inflation in these African countries is mainly imported (via import prices and exchange rate movements) or...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010097696

Impact of external debt on economic growth : a case study of Tanzania

Kasidi, Faraji; Said, A. Makame - In: Advances in management & applied economics 3 (2013) 4, pp. 59-82

This study investigated the impact of external debt on economic growth of Tanzania for the period of 1990-2010. The study used time series data on external debt and economic performance. It is assumed that external debt helps developing countries to meet developing needs. While debt servicing...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010148059

The power of the “objective” Bayesian unit-root test

Ahking, Francis W. - In: The open economics journal 2 (2009), pp. 71-79

Some researchers, for example, Koop [1], and Sims [2], have advocated for Bayesian alternatives to unit-root testing over the classical approach using the augmented Dickey-Fuller test (ADF). This paper studies the power of what Koop [1] has called the Objectiveʺ Bayesian approach to unit-root...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010080118

Forecasting movement of the Nigerian Stock Exchange All Share index using artificial neural and Bayesian networks

Bola, Adetunji Abigail; Adesola, Aderounmu Ganiyu; … - In: Journal of finance and investment analysis 2 (2013) 1, pp. 41-59

This paper presents a study of Artificial Neural Network (ANN) and Bayesian Network (BN) for use in stock index prediction. The data from Nigerian Stock Exchange (NSE) market are applied as a case study. Based on the rescaled range analysis, the neural network was used to capture the...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010148286

A parametric measure of productivity change from hyperbolic distance function : application to the Vietnamese banking industry

Vu, Ha; Turnell, Sean - In: Journal of applied finance & banking 2 (2012) 5, pp. 63-96

This paper introduces a new parametric measure of productivity change using the hyperbolic distance function. More specifically, the paper first estimates a stochastic translog hyperbolic distance function, which satisfies regularity conditions, using the Bayesian approach. Then it derives an...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010058696