In this study, a vector autoregression (VAR) model with time-varying parameters (TVP) to predict the daily Indian rupee (INR)/US dollar (USD) exchange rates for the Indian economy is developed. The method is based on characterization of the TVP as an optimal control problem. The methodology is a...

This study investigated the impact of external debt on economic growth of Tanzania for the period of 1990-2010. The study used time series data on external debt and economic performance. It is assumed that external debt helps developing countries to meet developing needs. While debt servicing...

The paper examines the determinants of inflation in some West African countries. Using the Johansen technique and time series between 1970q1 and 2010q4 the study determines whether inflation in these African countries is mainly imported (via import prices and exchange rate movements) or...

This paper aims at providing quantitative analysis of the dynamics of money supply, exchange rate and inflation in Nigeria. The paper utilizes secondary data that were obtained from the International Financial Statistics (IFS), of all variables investigated in the model. The sample covers...

Grey system theory can powerfully deal with incomplete and uncertain information. In this paper, we introduced an improved grey GM(1,1) model that integrates residual modification with Markov chain model. By this model, we improved the forecast accuracy of original grey forecast model and...

This paper develops a framework for evaluating the importance of the arrival of new information for forecasting, estimation, and decision making. By fusing known and recently developed statistical tests and concepts, the paper provides guidelines for detecting outliers, influential observations,...

Company valuation is not done after having generated a few values being a result of applying different valuation methods. In many cases institutions ordering the valuation request a value which can be an equivalent of a market, transactional value. Often the one method (and the valuation...

Fraudulent financial reporting is a matter of great social and economic concern. Managers may distort financial statements so as to present their companies more favorably to investors or creditors. On the other hand, auditors are the ones who are expected to identify fraudulent financial...

The aim of this paper is to empirically investigate the in sample and out of sample forecasting performance of several GARCH-type models such as GARCH, EGARCH and APARCH model with Gaussian, student-t, Generalized error distribution (GED), student-t with fixed DOF 10 and GED with fixed parameter...

In this study, we treat the seasonal variation in monthly time series in the context of the Western-European tourism demand for Tunisia, by presenting different techniques of detection of seasonality and the parametric and non-parametric approaches of seasonal adjustment. Then, we compare the...