We present a medium-scale dynamic factor model to estimate and forecast the rate of growth of the Spanish economy in the very short term. The intermediate size of the model overcomes the serious specification problems associated with large scale-models and the implicit loss of information of...

The identification of real estate cycles has always been an important issue in the study of real estate. This paper selected as indicators the Composite Leading Index and Reference Cycle Index regarding the real estate cycles in Taiwan, as they incorporate real estate activities, such as...

Nach den Wahlen im September sind größere Änderungen beim Einkommensteuertarif zu erwarten. Ferner wird häufig gefordert, Familien mit Kindern stärker zu fördern. Aus diesem Anlass hat das DIW Berlin einige Änderungsvorschläge hinsichtlich ihrer gesamtwirtschaftlichen Auswirkungen...

In this paper we extend the Stock and Watson’s (Leading economic indicators, new approaches and forecasting records, 1991) single-index dynamic factor model in an econometric framework that has the advantage of combining information from real and financial indicators published at different...

Econometric models, in the estimation of real estate prices, are a useful and realistic approach for buyers and for local and fiscal authorities. From the classical hedonic models to more data driven procedures, based on Artificial Neural Networks (ANN), many papers have appeared in economic...

Die Industrie in Deutschland hat bis zum dritten Quartal das Produktionsniveau des Vorjahres knapp halten können. Sie stand einer im Jahresverlauf stark rückläufigen Nachfrage aus dem Inland und dem Euroraum und einer leicht steigenden Nachfrage aus dem Nicht-Euroraum gegenüber. Für das...

This paper presents a case study on reforming a very dysfunctional labor market with a deep insider-outsider divide, namely the Spanish case. We show how a dual market, with permanent and temporary employees, makes real reform much harder, and leads to purely marginal changes that do not alter...

This paper analyzes the costs of job loss in China, using unique new data from the Rural-to-Urban Migration in China (RUMIC) data set for the year 2009. We investigate conventional labor market outcomes upon displacement like the length of unemployment spells, hours worked and monthly earnings....

This study aims to examine the characteristics of unemployment and migration of labor in the Northeastern of Thailand and to study the unemployment problems faced by local workers. The samples used in the study were 455 unemployed workers in Khon Kaen province, that is, 204 male and 251 female...