In this study, a vector autoregression (VAR) model with time-varying parameters (TVP) to predict the daily Indian rupee (INR)/US dollar (USD) exchange rates for the Indian economy is developed. The method is based on characterization of the TVP as an optimal control problem. The methodology is a...

This paper develops a framework for evaluating the importance of the arrival of new information for forecasting, estimation, and decision making. By fusing known and recently developed statistical tests and concepts, the paper provides guidelines for detecting outliers, influential observations,...

The aim of this paper is to empirically investigate the in sample and out of sample forecasting performance of several GARCH-type models such as GARCH, EGARCH and APARCH model with Gaussian, student-t, Generalized error distribution (GED), student-t with fixed DOF 10 and GED with fixed parameter...

In this study, we treat the seasonal variation in monthly time series in the context of the Western-European tourism demand for Tunisia, by presenting different techniques of detection of seasonality and the parametric and non-parametric approaches of seasonal adjustment. Then, we compare the...

This contribution studies the application of heteroskedasticity robust estimation of Vector-Autoregressive (VAR) models. VAR models have become one of the most applied models for the analysis of multivariate time series. Econometric standard software usually provides parameter estimators that...

I/O models have been widely used to assess the impacts of many changes in an economy. An I/O model is also an important tool to make forecasts and the results from an I/O model are very helpful in many policy-making processes. Many scientific findings in economics have to give credit to the I/O...

The hypothesis that devaluating and depreciating the exchange rate in developing economies will lead to fast growth and economic development has drawn some controversies and debates during the past 20 years in the area of development economics. Mainly, due to the delayed results in some...

The paper examines the determinants of inflation in some West African countries. Using the Johansen technique and time series between 1970q1 and 2010q4 the study determines whether inflation in these African countries is mainly imported (via import prices and exchange rate movements) or...

This study investigated the impact of external debt on economic growth of Tanzania for the period of 1990-2010. The study used time series data on external debt and economic performance. It is assumed that external debt helps developing countries to meet developing needs. While debt servicing...