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MICA-BBVA : a factor model of economic and financial indicators for short-term GDP forecasting

Camacho, Máximo; Doménech, Rafael - In: SERIEs : Journal of the Spanish Economic Association 3 (2012) 4, pp. 475-497

In this paper we extend the Stock and Watson’s (Leading economic indicators, new approaches and forecasting records, 1991) single-index dynamic factor model in an econometric framework that has the advantage of combining information from real and financial indicators published at different...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010078109

Cycles inside cycles : Spanish regional aggregation

Gadea, Maria Dolores; Gómez-Loscos, Ana; Montañés, … - In: SERIEs : Journal of the Spanish Economic Association 3 (2012) 4, pp. 423-456

This paper sets out a comprehensive framework to identify regional business cycles within Spain and analyses their stylised features and the degree of synchronisation both within them and between them and the Spanish economy. We show that the regional cycles are quite heterogeneous although they...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010078111

A factor analysis for the Spanish economy

Cuevas, Ángel; Quilis, Enrique M. - In: SERIEs : Journal of the Spanish Economic Association 3 (2012) 3, pp. 311-338

We present a medium-scale dynamic factor model to estimate and forecast the rate of growth of the Spanish economy in the very short term. The intermediate size of the model overcomes the serious specification problems associated with large scale-models and the implicit loss of information of...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010030016

Network centrality and stock market volatility : the impact of communication topologies on prices

Hein, Oliver; Schwind, Michael; Spiwoks, Markus - In: Journal of finance and investment analysis 1 (2012) 1, pp. 199-232

We investigate the impact of agent communication networks on prices in an artificial stock market. Networks with different centralization measures are tested for their effect on the volatility of prices. Trading strategies diffuse through the different network topologies, mimetic contagion...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010079539

Dynamic speculative behaviors and mortgage bubbles in the real estate market of mainland China

Wang, Sheng - In: Journal of finance and investment analysis 1 (2012) 1, pp. 1-54

It is systemic to expound how that the speculative behaviors are driven by the number of a series housing policies promulgated by China's government for the real estate market. The market is resulted in full of speculative behaviors, and has been booming since the beginning of this decade, even...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010079547

The future of retirement and the pension system : how the public’s expectations vary over time and across socio-economic groups

Bissonnette, Luc; Soest, Arthur van - In: IZA Journal of European Labor Studies 1 (2012), pp. 1-21

We analyze expectations of the Dutch population ages 25 and older concerning future generosity of state and … until 2012 on individuals’ subjective expectations concerning changes between now and ten or twenty years from now in the … security benefits, and the average retirement age ten or twenty years from now. We find significant variation in expectations …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010082266

Impact of economic reform on the Nigerian telecommunications sector

Babatunde, Onakoya Adegbemi - In: Advances in management & applied economics 3 (2013) 3, pp. 141-154

In the early days of nationalization, it seemed axiomatic that price and quality standards could be better managed by State Owned Enterprises (SOE). Subsequent experience, however demonstrates that public ownership and control are different as the challenges of imposing effective public...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010148035

Seasonal adjustment versus seasonality modelling : effect on tourism demand forecasting

Gasmi, Amira - In: Advances in management & applied economics 3 (2013) 4, pp. 119-132

In this study, we treat the seasonal variation in monthly time series in the context of the Western-European tourism demand for Tunisia, by presenting different techniques of detection of seasonality and the parametric and non-parametric approaches of seasonal adjustment. Then, we compare the...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010148054

The forecasting performances of volatility models in emerging stock markets : is a generalization really possible?

Iltuzer, Zeynep; Tas, Oktay - In: Journal of applied finance & banking 3 (2013) 2, pp. 49-73

In almost all stages of forecasting volatility, certain subjective decisions need to be made. Despite of an enormous literature in the area, these subjectivities are hindrances to reaching an overall conclusion on the performances of the models. In order to find out outperforming model in...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010148073

Currency exposure, second-moment exchange rate exposure and asymmetric volatility of stock returns : the effects of financial crises on Taiwanese firms

Varga, René Ferenc Franck - In: Journal of applied finance & banking 3 (2013) 2, pp. 15-37

Over the last two decades, a number of financial disasters have occurred due to failure in risk management procedures. If some, as the Asian financial crisis, had a very much more muted global impact (even though they sent shock waves through global financial markets, the main damage were fairly...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010148075

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