In this paper we extend the Stock and Watson’s (Leading economic indicators, new approaches and forecasting records, 1991) single-index dynamic factor model in an econometric framework that has the advantage of combining information from real and financial indicators published at different...

The identification of real estate cycles has always been an important issue in the study of real estate. This paper selected as indicators the Composite Leading Index and Reference Cycle Index regarding the real estate cycles in Taiwan, as they incorporate real estate activities, such as...

Nach den Wahlen im September sind größere Änderungen beim Einkommensteuertarif zu erwarten. Ferner wird häufig gefordert, Familien mit Kindern stärker zu fördern. Aus diesem Anlass hat das DIW Berlin einige Änderungsvorschläge hinsichtlich ihrer gesamtwirtschaftlichen Auswirkungen...

We present a medium-scale dynamic factor model to estimate and forecast the rate of growth of the Spanish economy in the very short term. The intermediate size of the model overcomes the serious specification problems associated with large scale-models and the implicit loss of information of...

The classical APT model is of the form r j - E(r j) = beta j(I - EI) + epsilon j, where r j - E(r j) is the earning deviation (called basic ariance-profit) of the security j, I is a common factor. This paper considers the impact on the securities return caused by the skewness and kurtosis of the...

This article examines the impact of news about the Bank of Japan monetary policy announcements regarding the Japanese yen, US dollar, and the Euro interest rates. Whether or not the announcements from the monetary authorities impact the domestic markets is related to the success of their...

This paper provides future researchers of economic structure with a model for building a social accounting matrix (SAM), that is, a unique countrywide database for use in structural analysis, and applies this model to the empirical investigation of the economic structure of Pakistan. Our...

Die Industrie in Deutschland hat bis zum dritten Quartal das Produktionsniveau des Vorjahres knapp halten können. Sie stand einer im Jahresverlauf stark rückläufigen Nachfrage aus dem Inland und dem Euroraum und einer leicht steigenden Nachfrage aus dem Nicht-Euroraum gegenüber. Für das...