Grey system theory can powerfully deal with incomplete and uncertain information. In this paper, we introduced an improved grey GM(1,1) model that integrates residual modification with Markov chain model. By this model, we improved the forecast accuracy of original grey forecast model and...

This research tries to assess the dependents and Long Term Care costs for next years in Spain. To do this, it has been taken account data from the Survey on Disabilities, Impairments and Health Status and population forecasts estimated by INE, the legal rules passed between 2006 and 2008, and...

Die demographisch bedingte Zunahme alter und sehr alter Personen, verbunden mit der deutlichen Verringerung der Personen im erwerbsfähigen Alter, stellt für den Bereich der Pflege eine große Herausforderung dar. Ein Großteil der Pflegebedürftigen wird zwar heute durch Familienangehörige zu...

Zwischen 2001 und 2011 hat sich die Zahl der Erwerbstätigen im Rentenalter in Deutschland auf rund 760 000 verdoppelt. In keiner anderen Altersgruppe ist die Zuwachsrate der Erwerbstätigen in dieser Zeit so deutlich gestiegen wie bei den Über-65- Jährigen. Das DIW Berlin hat die...

The purpose of this paper is to determine in what way certain demographic and professional characteristics influence managerial risk taking. The research is conducted using the questionnaire on a sample of middle and top level managers employed in small, medium and large Croatian hospitality...

The institutional structures of the various types of European welfare state were established around extra revenues called the "demographic dividend" that used to be easily available throughout the decades of the 20st century. They, however, ceased to be available at the end of that century. The...

Some researchers, for example, Koop [1], and Sims [2], have advocated for Bayesian alternatives to unit-root testing over the classical approach using the augmented Dickey-Fuller test (ADF). This paper studies the power of what Koop [1] has called the Objectiveʺ Bayesian approach to unit-root...

We study optimal hedging design for returns on an Italian equity mutual fund index since 2008. Alternative hedging instruments include one-month futures contracts for FTSE-MIB, FTSE100 and Xetra DAX. We use bivariate models of our Italian equity mutual fund index and each hedging instrument to...

This paper presents a study of Artificial Neural Network (ANN) and Bayesian Network (BN) for use in stock index prediction. The data from Nigerian Stock Exchange (NSE) market are applied as a case study. Based on the rescaled range analysis, the neural network was used to capture the...

This paper introduces a new parametric measure of productivity change using the hyperbolic distance function. More specifically, the paper first estimates a stochastic translog hyperbolic distance function, which satisfies regularity conditions, using the Bayesian approach. Then it derives an...