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A time-varying parameter vector autoregression model for forecasting emerging market exchange rates
Kumar, Manish - In: International journal of economic sciences and applied … 3 (2010) 2, pp. 21-39
In this study, a vector autoregression (VAR) model with time-varying parameters (TVP) to predict the daily Indian rupee (INR)/US dollar (USD) exchange rates for the Indian economy is developed. The method is based on characterization of the TVP as an optimal control problem. The methodology is a...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009958060
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Seasonal adjustment versus seasonality modelling : effect on tourism demand forecasting
Gasmi, Amira - In: Advances in management & applied economics 3 (2013) 4, pp. 119-132
In this study, we treat the seasonal variation in monthly time series in the context of the Western-European tourism demand for Tunisia, by presenting different techniques of detection of seasonality and the parametric and non-parametric approaches of seasonal adjustment. Then, we compare the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010148054
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A factor analysis for the Spanish economy
Cuevas, Ángel; Quilis, Enrique M. - In: SERIEs : Journal of the Spanish Economic Association 3 (2012) 3, pp. 311-338
We present a medium-scale dynamic factor model to estimate and forecast the rate of growth of the Spanish economy in the very short term. The intermediate size of the model overcomes the serious specification problems associated with large scale-models and the implicit loss of information of...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010030016
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Volatility modeling for forecasting stock index with fixed parameter distributional assumption
Rahman, Md. Mostafizur; Rahman, Md. Azizur; Hossain, … - In: Journal of applied finance & banking 3 (2013) 1, pp. 109-122
2150 observations is used for empirical analysis. We consider first 1950 observations for in sample estimation and last 200 … parameter 1.5 of GED density fail to improve the in sample estimation performance compared to student-t and GED distributional … assumption. Among all of these models, APARCH model with student-t density give better in sample estimation results. In case of …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010118432
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Macroeconomic effects on DJSI-World returns
Sariannidis, Nikolaos; Koskosas, Ioannis; Kartalis, Nikos; … - In: International journal of economic sciences and applied … 2 (2009) 2, pp. 95-110
Index World (D.J.S.I.-World). By using the model of Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity (GARCH), the … relation between D.J.S.I.-World returns to 10 year bond returns and Yen/U.S. dollar exchange rate is investigated. Research … results show that 10 year bond value affects positively the value of D.J.S.I.-World. However, there is a negative relation …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009958040
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The forecasting performances of volatility models in emerging stock markets : is a generalization really possible?
Iltuzer, Zeynep; Tas, Oktay - In: Journal of applied finance & banking 3 (2013) 2, pp. 49-73
In almost all stages of forecasting volatility, certain subjective decisions need to be made. Despite of an enormous literature in the area, these subjectivities are hindrances to reaching an overall conclusion on the performances of the models. In order to find out outperforming model in...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010148073
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Currency exposure, second-moment exchange rate exposure and asymmetric volatility of stock returns : the effects of financial crises on Taiwanese firms
Varga, René Ferenc Franck - In: Journal of applied finance & banking 3 (2013) 2, pp. 15-37
Over the last two decades, a number of financial disasters have occurred due to failure in risk management procedures. If some, as the Asian financial crisis, had a very much more muted global impact (even though they sent shock waves through global financial markets, the main damage were fairly...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010148075
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Forecasting patient volume for a large hospital system : a comparison of the periodicity of time series data and forecasting approaches
Kennedy, Kristin; Salzillo, Michael; Olinsky, Alan; … - In: Advances in business and management forecasting 9 (2013), pp. 33-44
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010147162
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Forecasting activity levels as a baseline for predicting pain and discomport levels in canines
Miori, Virginia M.; Algeo, James; Segulin, Brian; … - In: Advances in business and management forecasting 9 (2013), pp. 15-32
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010147163
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Statistical forecasting of the indicators of Polish airport's operations
Fijorek, Kamil; Leśniewska, Agnieszka - In: Folia oeconomica Stetinensia : FOS 11 (2012) 1, pp. 7-18
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010148369