Grey system theory can powerfully deal with incomplete and uncertain information. In this paper, we introduced an improved grey GM(1,1) model that integrates residual modification with Markov chain model. By this model, we improved the forecast accuracy of original grey forecast model and...

Insurance companies have to estimate reserves and provisions to cover the payment of either unreported claims or unsettled claims. In this paper, we apply the Chain-Ladder method to obtain a point estimate of reserves, and then we use the bootstrap technique to estimate the margin of error and...

In some circumstances a decision maker, expert, in a group decision making problem cannot express his/her preferences with a unique linguistic fuzzy preference because he/she is dubious into some preferences. In this paper, we present a consensus model for group decision making problems with...

The paper intends to measure the daily Value-at-Risk (VaR) for Rial-Euro exchange rate fluctuations risk. Since in this case we deal with a single risk factor, so we will not use the Monte Carlo simulation method to measure the VaR and we will only use the parametric and historical simulation...

Using the maximum likelihood method, in order to estimate Half-Normal stochastic frontier production models, entails several practical di±culties that, perhaps, have not been su±ciently emphasised. In employing FRONTIER software, we analyse the case in which the estimation obtained suggests...

Today it's frequently used the terms PIGS or PIIGS, acronyms used by economic journalists to refer to different countries of the European Union for their statement of affairs. The bad connotation is evident from the fact that pigs in English suggest the bad state of the economies of these...

This paper offers a specific analysis of speculation bubbles in the economic history of the world, and then tries to identify the causes and effects of the speculation bubble on the real estate market in the USA, which was the main cause of the subprime crisis. The first part of the paper aims...

Die globale Finanz- und Wirtschaftskrise hat eine intensive Debatte über eine angemessene Regulierung des Banken- und Finanzsektors ausgelöst. Dabei wird insbesondere die Bedeutung von großen und stark vernetzten Banken für die gesamtwirtschaftliche Stabilität diskutiert. In diesem Beitrag...

Nach dem schwachen Jahresausklang 2012 wird das reale Bruttoinlandsprodukt in Deutschland in diesem Jahr um 0,7 Prozent wachsen. Die wirtschaftliche Entwicklung gewinnt jedoch im Verlauf des Jahres 2013 zunehmend an Kraft, so dass die deutsche Wirtschaft im kommenden Jahr um 1,6 Prozent wachsen...

In recent years the issue of the role of asset prices in monetary setting has become increasingly topical since booms and busts in asset market are associated with the fluctuations in overall economic activity through its impacts on aggregate spending. In this study, we use Smooth Transition...