Forecasting real economic activity poses a considerable challenge not only due to hard-to-predict events like the current financial crisis but also due to the fact that targeted variables often undergo significant revisions after their first publication. In this paper we report the results of a...

This paper investigates the 2001 referendum on the Allianz-Arena, a professional soccer stadium in Munich, Germany, with respect to lifestyle-specific voter preferences. Using political party affiliation and milieu probabilities as proxy variables, we find that lifestyle-specific preferences,...

This paper investigates socioeconomic impacts of three multifunctional sports arenas situated in Berlin-Prenzlauer Berg, Germany. The three arenas were chosen for their potential to contribute to revitalisation of their economically deprived neighbourhoods. We employ a difference-in-differences...

This paper investigates socioeconomic impacts of three multifunctional sports arenas situated in Berlin-Prenzlauer Berg, Germany. The three arenas are chosen with respect to their potential to contribute to a process of revitalization of their economically deprived neighbourhood. Impact is...

We use a public referendum on a new air traffic concept in Berlin, Germany as a natural experiment to analyze how the interaction of tenure and capitalization effects shapes the outcome of direct democracy processes. We distinguish between homevoters, i.e., voters who are homeowners, and...

At the FIFA World Cup 2006, the method of using the market value of the teams (“transfer value”) was first proposed as a simple and transparent basis for forecasting the outcome of a major football tournament. Indeed, the countries with players of the highest market value were world...

Historically, football experts' predictions were the only method of predicting the outcomes of championships. Former players, coaches, and nearly all fans have tried their hand at it. And most of these predictions were wrong, since subjective desires and prevailing public opinions always played...

Anlässlich der Fußballweltmeisterschaft 2006 hatte das DIW Berlin zusammen mit der Freien Universität Berlin erstmals den Transfer- Marktwert der Mannschaften als ein einfaches und transparentes Kriterium für die Prognose der Ergebnisse großer Fußball-Turniere vorgeschlagen. Und...