This paper analyses the NAIRU making use of a cointegrated VAR and of Italian labour market data. We show that a cointegrated VAR represents a statistically adequate (using Aris Spanos's terminology) approach to the estimation of the NAIRU. This is an effective way to overcome several problems...

This paper is (over the formulas) self explaining . The measurement of economies no longer by GDP alone, but by an Index that includes other important factors as well, a So-cial factors relativized GDP. This index cuts out the part of the GDP that is long term fro-zen up by social transfers...

"The paper investigates the predictive power of a new survey implemented by the Federal Employment Agency (FEA) for forecasting German unemployment in the short run. Every month, the CEOs of the FEA's regional agencies are asked about their expectations of future labor market developments. We...

Gegenstand der vorliegenden Studie im Auftrag des Bundesministeriums für Arbeit und Sozialordnung sind die Auswirkungen der geplanten EU-Osterweiterung auf die Arbeitsmärkte und die öffentlichen Finanzen in der Bundesrepublik Deutschland. Zur Abschätzung des Migrationspotentials nach der...

The article studies the conceptions of causality encountered in macroeconometrics. From an empiricist standpoint, it is natural to privilege measurements of phenomenal associations, spread over a period of time, between series of data. This method has made a major comeback since the 1970s,...

In economics, common factors are often assumed to underlie the co-movements of a set of macroeconomic variables. For this reason, many authors have used estimated factors in the construction of prediction models. In this article, we begin by surveying the extant literature on diffusion indexes....

The article studies the conceptions of causality encountered in macroeconometrics. From an empiricist standpoint, it is natural to privilege measurements of phenomenal associations, spread over a period of time, between series of data. This method has made a major comeback since the 1970s,...