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In this paper we develop a framework to analyze the optimal policy of an inflation-targeting monetary authority that is not fully confident about its model and the degree of mistrust changes over time as the structure of the economy changes. These changes can include structural breaks as well as...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010866863
. Keywords: Model uncertainty, Robustness, Markov regime-switching, Monetary policy, Inflation targeting. …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10004978076
In the aftermath of the global financial crisis, the state of macroeconomic modeling and the use of macroeconomic models in policy analysis has come under heavy criticism. Macroeconomists in academia and policy institutions have been blamed for relying too much on a particular class of...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011048074
-based approach outperforms classical DRO approaches in terms of both average and downside-risk performance using historical data …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010634255
about the distribution of asset returns. The model is preference-based and relies upon a separate parametrization of risk …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005087524
Central banks face uncertainty about potential output. We model optimal monetary policy under discretion in a situation in which the central bank adopts a min–max approach to policy. The case for appointing a conservative central banker who puts a larger weight on inflation stabilization...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010906373
We employ information-gap decision theory to derive a robust monetary policy response to Knightian parameter … uncertainty. We show that such information-gap robustness is a proxy for probability of policy success. Hence, policies that are …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005481435
This paper explores the role that the imperfect knowledge of the structure of the economy plays in the uncertainty surrounding the effects of rule-based monetary policy on unemployment dynamics in the euro area and the US. We employ a Bayesian model averaging procedure on a wide range of models...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005025787
The choice of monetary policy is the most important concern of central banks. However, this choice is always confronted, inter alia, with two relevant aspects of economic policy: parameter instability and model uncertainty. This paper deals with both types of uncertainty using a very specific...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10004978075
-case model, we show that an increase in the central bank’s preference for robustness requires a more aggressive reaction of the … smaller under robust control compared to a benchmark case without it. Finally, an increase in the preference for robustness … preference for robustness has no effect on the reaction of asset prices to the shocks affecting goods demand and financial …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005570159