This paper explores the effects of incomplete markets and positive spillovers on aggregate and industry output behavior. We consider an economy composed of a fixed set of infinitely-lived industries. When industries coordinate production decisions they jointly improve their productivity. Markets...

This Selected Issues paper for Chile describes the postcrisis recovery experience. The recovery from the 2008–2009 global crisis has been markedly different both among advanced and emerging economies. The steady improvement in the labor wedge-distortions related to the consumption leisure...

We construct asset markets, that are similar to those studied by Smith, Suchanek and Willians (1988), in which bubbles and crashes tended to occur. The main difference between the markets studied here and those studied by Smith et al. are that in the markets studied here, the fundamental values...

We report the results of an experiment designed to study the role of speculation in the formation of bubbles and crashes in laboratory asset markets. In a setting in which speculation is not possible, bubbles and crashes are observed. The results suggest that the departures from fundamental...

Growth mechanisms can significantly affect short run properties of monetary models. An equilibrium model with human capital accumulation through a learning-by-doing mechanism possesses both sustained inflation rigidity and persistent real responses in the presence of unexpected monetary shocks....

To a greater extent than is often stressed in extant literature, preference assumptions affect responses to monetary shocks in representative agents models. Temporary money shocks can have persistent real effects in cash in advance models if the marginal utility of leaisure is a decreasing...

Dua and Miller (1996) created leading and coincident employment indexes for the state of Connecticut, following Moore's (1981) work at the national level. The performance of the Dua-Miller indexes following the recession of the early 1990s fell short of expectations. This paper performs two...

In this paper, we analyze macro-financial linkages in the euro area by implementing an innovative factor-augmented probit model estimated using a large database. In particular, our model specification enables the identification of the leading influence of financial variables on euro area...

In this paper, we attempt to analyse the relationship between house price dynamics and the business cycle. Employing a time-varying transition probability Markov switching framework, we provide empirical evidence that house price growth may prove a useful leading indicator for turning point...