Various inflation forecasting models are compared using a simulated out-of-sample forecasting framework. We focus on … the question of whether monetary aggregates are useful for forecasting inflation, but unlike previous work we examine a … are also reported on. The first shows that cointegration vector parameter estimation error is crucial when using VEC …

the naive one by a factor of 2 to 3. The relationships for inflation were successfully tested for cointegration. We have … and lagged relationships between the rates of inflation, unemployment, and change in labour force. For France, several … relationships were estimated eight years ago. The change rate of labour force was used as a driving force of inflation and …

the price mark-up on imported and labor costs and its relation to inflation, using cointegration techniques. It is found …This paper provides evidence on price markup and inflation dynamics in Italy over the period 1970-1998. We investigate … that, despite different policy regimes across decades, the relation between the markup and inflation is remarkably stable …

In this paper we study 2-state Markov switching VAR models of monthly unemployment and inflation for three countries …: Sweden, United Kingdom, and the United States. The primary purpose is to examine if periods of low inflation are associated … variance in unemployment. In the U.S. case we find that the variance of unemployment is lower in the low inflation regime than …

An approach to decomposing and interpreting the inflation process is proposed. It suggests that the low U.S. inflation …

Phillips curves are central to discussions of inflation dynamics and monetary policy. New Keynesian Phillips curves … describe how past inflation, expected future inflation, and a measure of real marginal cost or an output gap drive the current … inflation rate. This paper studies the (potential) weak identification of these curves under GMM and traces this syndrome to a …

compared in terms of their actual inflation prediction power considering that output gap estimation is an essential input in … successful results in predicting actual inflation. …

This paper estimates NAIRU (Non-Accelerating Inflation Rate of Unemployment) for the Turkish economy as an unobserved …-accelerating inflation rate of unemployment. Furthermore, all of the derived series are plausible and capture the significant turning points … unemployment and inflation. Meanwhile, the coefficient of exchange rate in the Phillips curve equation suggests a declining, but …

monitoring changes in cyclical fluctuations of economic variables that may potentially result in an acceleration of inflation … evolution of the inflation index. A synthetic indicator build up from series available in real time (with about a quarter lag … authority. A detailed analysis of cointegration, following the methodology of cointegration systems Johansen (1988) and Johansen …