After liberalizing international transactions of financial assets, many countries experience large swings in asset prices, capital flows, and aggregate production. This paper studies how the adjustment to capital account liberalization depends upon the degree of development of a domestic...

In this article I provide a perspective on the current state of modern business cycle theory. This theory has developed from an application of the Arrow-Debreu general equilibrium framework to the neoclassical growth model. On the positive side, this approach is able to accommodate various...

In this article I provide a perspective on the current state of modern business cycle theory. This theory has developed from an application of the Arrow-Debreu general equilibrium framework to the neoclassical growth model. On the positive side, this approach is able to accommodate various...

In this paper we present a simple, theory-based measure of the variations in aggregate economic efficiency associated with business fluctuations. We decompose this indicator, which we refer to as the gap, into two constituent parts: a price markup and a wage markup, and show that the latter...

We estimate a forward-looking monetary policy reaction function for the postwar United States economy, before and after Volcker's appointment as Fed Chairman in 1979. Our results point to substantial differences in the estimated rule across periods. In particular, interest rate policy in the...

We estimate a forward-looking monetary policy reaction function for the US economy, pre- and post-October 1979. Our results point to substantial differences in the estimated rule across periods. In particular, interest rate policy in the Volcker-Greenspan period appears to have been much more...

We develop a model in which innovations in an economy's growth potential are an important driving force of the business cycle. The frame- work shares the emphasis of the recent “new shock” literature on revisions of beliefs about the future as a source of fluctuations, but differs by tieing...