This paper examines the performance of M1 in an indicator model of inflation over time horizons as long as 16 quarters into the future. The central conclusion of the paper is that, in addtion to the output gap, the cumulative growth of M1 and the deviations of M1 from its long-run path provide...

We test for the pricing of exchange rate and foreign inflation risk in equities. Our tests are motivated by the empirical implications of the models of Solnik (1974b) as revised by Sercu (1980), Grauer, Litzenberger, and Stehle (1976), and Adler and Dumas (1983). Both exchange rate and foreign...

The purpose of this paper is to examine the merits of monetary policy rules that utilize as their principal target variable the level or growth rate of some aggregate reasure of nominal spending, such as nominal GDP, rather than a monetary aggregate or an index of inflation (either alone or in...

The recent debate over monetary policy strategies concludes that monetary targeting in practice lead to very similar patterns of central bank behaviour. This raises the question why central banks insist on the strategies they use. In this paper, we develop an answer from political economy. After...

Ce document donne un apercu de debat actuel sur la prise en compte des prix des actifs par la politique monetaire, se concentrant sur l'evolution des cours des actions aux Etats-Unis. Il passe d'abord en revue les principales causes et consequences de cette evolution, puis resume les arguments...

The author summarizes the report’s methods, findings, and recommendations, and then reviews the comments and criticisms that appeared soon after the report was issued. Changes in CPI methodology are also summarized and assessed, as is recent research on related issues. Based on recent...