In this study, we analyze the effects of trade liberalization and productivity growth in agricultural activities on Turkey by using a dynamic CGE model calibrated to 2008 data. The simulation results suggest that Turkish economy is capable of accommodating the adverse effects of trade...

Stochastic coefficients models can provide accurate agricultural secto forecasts and useful policy analysis Coefficient variation may occur for many reasons including aggregating over micro units, omitting variable, using an incorrect functional form, and allowing for a dynamic economic theory...

In this final article of our three-part series, we demonstrate why stochastic coefficients models are well suited to predict future variables We analyze the forecasting problem and consider various criteria of prediction If a forecaster must choose one from among several coherent predictors,...

Researchers should be wary of the expectations framework and optimization method employed when drawing conclusions about the likely production behavior of farmers The article compares the predictive accuracy of two expectational schemes, supply-based expectations (SBE) and adaptive expectations...

This paper uses annual US data to examine the causal relationship between immigration and real GDP. Despite its implications for policy, a statistically robust relationship between these two series has been difficult to pin down. Our tests reveal that both the series are break-stationary....

World trade in food grains (wheat, rice, and wheat flour) more than doubled from 1962 to 1983, while the number of countries participating in world trade increased 85 percent. Food grain consumption has increased faster than production in most countries so more countries entered world trade for...

This report presents a statistical summary of U.S. agricultural shipments made under U.S. Government concessional exportorograms. Food and other agricultural commodities have been provided under P.L. 480 to many people to meet emergency situations, to supply nutritional needs, and to assist in...