Showing 1 - 10 of 142
The forecast plays an important role in the planning, the decision-making and control in any domain of activity … (univariate models), that use only the information of its past values to forecast the future, can often predict future with more … accuracy than causal or multivariate models. In this paper, we model and forecast the offensive effectiveness of the soccer …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005789648
We forecast average annual GDP growth for 147 countries for 2010-30. We use a cross-country regression model where the …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008511691
An empirical forecast accuracy comparison of the non-parametric method, known as multivariate Nearest Neighbor method …, through the estimation of economic indicators plugged in the bridge equations, we get more accurate forecasts when using … for dependent time series, providing confidence intervals for point forecast in time series. …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008461116
In this paper, we construct a large Bayesian Vector Autoregressive model (BVAR) for the Euro Area that captures the complex dynamic inter-relationships between the main components of the Harmonized Index of Consumer Price (HICP) and their determinants. The model is estimated using Bayesian...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008468558
This paper introduces and evaluates new models for time series count data. The Autoregressive Conditional Poisson model (ACP) makes it possible to deal with issues of discreteness, overdispersion (variance greater than the mean) and serial correlation. A fully parametric approach is taken and a...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005260271
In this paper we address the issue of modeling and forecasting electricity loads. We apply a two-step procedure to a series of system-wide loads from the California power market. First, we remove the weekly and annual seasonalities. Then, after analyzing properties of the deseasonalized data we...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009003632
-time forecasts of the real price of oil can be more accurate than the no-change forecast at horizons up to one year. In some cases … prices, forecasts based on AR and ARMA models, and the no-change forecast. In addition, these VAR models have consistently … forecasters to interpret their oil price forecast in light of economic models and to evaluate its sensitivity to alternative …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009493559
and use information in historical regimes to make inference on out-of-sample breaks. A Bayesian estimation and forecasting …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008805826
The Federal Planning Bureau is responsible, within the National Accounts Institute, for producing the macroeconomic forecasts that are used to set up the federal government budget. This working paper presents an update of the ex post assessment of the quality of these forecasts. Compared to the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010544679
Bayesian vector autoregressive (BVAR) models are developed to forecast industry employment for a resource-based economy …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010547715