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Demand Matters: German Wheat Market Integration 1806-1855 in a European Context
Uebele, Martin - Center for Quantitative Economics (CQE), … - 2010
This study analyzes annual wheat prices in 13 German cities in the years 1806 to 1855, together with wheat price series from 44 other European and American cities. The method used is a dynamic factor model, which allows for distinguishing common price uctuations on international and national...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008463985
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Business Cycle Volatility in Germany
Buch, Claudia M.; Doepke, Joerg; Pierdzioch, Christian - Institut für Weltwirtschaft (IfW) - 2002
Stylized facts suggest that output volatility in OECD countries has declined in recent years. However, the causes and … structural breaks in the dynamics and the volatility of the real output process in Germany can be detected. We report evidence … that output volatility has declined in Germany. Yet, this decline in output volatility is not as clear-cut as it is in the …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005755211
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Reparations, Deficits, and Debt Default: the Great Depression in Germany
Ritschl, Albrecht - Centre for Economic Performance, LSE - 2012
Germany's Great Depression of the early 1930s started in 1929 with a sudden stop in the current account. It ended after a foreign debt default that unfolded in several stages from 1931 to 1933. This chapter reviews Germany's macroeconomic history between the gold-based stabilisation of 1924 and...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010552589
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A note on the granular nature of imports in German manufacturing industries
Wagner, Joachim - 2014
This paper uses an approach recently suggested by Gabaix (Eonometrica 2011) to investigate for the first time the role of idiosyncratic shocks to the largest firms in the dynamics of imports by firms from manufacturing industries. For Germany we find evidence that imports are power-law...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010936521
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A note on the granular nature of imports in German manufacturing industries
Wagner, Joachim - Centre of Excellence for Science and Innovation … - 2014
This paper uses an approach recently suggested by Gabaix (Eonometrica 2011) to investigate for the first time the role of idiosyncratic shocks to the largest firms in the dynamics of imports by firms from manufacturing industries. For Germany we find evidence that imports are power-law...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010945052
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The granular nature of the great export collapse in German manufacturing industries, 2008/2009
Wagner, Joachim - In: Economics - The Open-Access, Open-Assessment E-Journal 7 (2013), pp. 1-21
This paper uses comprehensive high-quality panel data from official statistics for exporting enterprises to investigate the micro-structure of the recent export collapse in manufacturing industries in Germany during the crisis of 2008/2009. Almost all of the decline in exports was due to...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010954710
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Unbundling the Great European Recession (2009-2013): Unemployment, Consumption, Investment, Inflation and Current Account
Campiglio, Luigi Pierfranco - Volkswirtschaftliche Fakultät, … - 2014
The aim of the paper is to unbundle the main economic variables involved in the European Crisis and clarify their reciprocal relationship. The variable considered are: unemployment, inflation, consumptions, investments and current accounts. We use annual, quarterly and monthly data, until 2012,...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011261122
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Trade linkages, balance sheets, and spillovers: The Germany-Central European Supply Chain
Elekdag, Selim; Muir, Dirk; Wu, Yiqun - In: Journal of Policy Modeling 37 (2015) 2, pp. 374-387
Germany and the Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland, and Slovakia (the CE4) have been in a process of deepening economic integration which has lead to the development of a dynamic supply chain within Europe—the Germany-Central European Supply Chain (GCESC). Model-based simulations suggest two key...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011264218
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Do probit models help in forecasting turning points of German business cycles?
Fritsche, Ulrich - EconWPA - 2001
In this paper we used a data set constructed for a companion paper (Fritsche/Stephan, 2000) where we explored the leading indicator properties of different time series for the German business cycle. Now we test for the ability of different indicator series to forecast recessions by using a...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005076772
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Real-time data and business cycle analysis in Germany
Döpke, Jörg - Deutsche Bundesbank - 2004
This paper examines the consequences of using "real-time" data for business cycle analysis in Germany based on a novel data set covering quarterly real output data from 1968 to 2001. Real-time output gaps are calculated. They differ considerably from their counterparts based on the most recent...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005083158