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The paper analyzes two questions: (i) the effect of a monetary policy shock on the business cycle and (ii) the extent to which a shift in a monetary policy affects the dynamics of business cycle. Unlike previous literature, to answer these questions, we measure cycle movements by calculating an...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005076805
The current financial crisis followed the “great moderation,” according to which the world’s central banks had gotten so good at countercyclical policy that the business cycle no longer existed. As more and more economists and media people became convinced that the risk of recessions had...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005836728
This paper explores the disconnect of Federal Reserve data from index number theory. A consequence could have been the decreased systemic-risk misperceptions that contributed to excess risk taking prior to the housing bust. We find that most recessions in the past 50 years were preceded by more...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008506252
believed that the world’s central banks had gotten so good at countercyclical policy that the business cycle volatility had …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005106591
This paper explores the disconnect of Federal Reserve data from index number theory. A consequence could have been the decreased systemic-risk misperceptions that contributed to excess risk taking prior to the housing bust. We find that most recessions in the past 50 years were preceded by more...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008614991
of bankruptcies. In this framework, we find that stock market volatility may damage the real economy if the stock market … is too relevant. In particular, an increase of volatility worsens the economic performance through the stock market …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011253063
: (i) monetary volatility negatively affects long-run growth; (ii) the relation between nominal volatility and growth … increases the negative effect of nominal volatility on mean growth. …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009651064
The decline in output volatility in a number of countries over the past few decades has been well-documented, though … volatility. We suggest that reforms in product and labour markets can reduce volatility of aggregate output by encouraging … output volatility. Our estimates are reasonably robust to a number of alternative specifications, including those that …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005423569
: (i) monetary volatility negatively affects long-run growth; (ii)the relation between nominal volatility and growth … increases the negative effect of nominal volatility on mean growth. …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008685157
: (i) monetary volatility negatively affects long-run growth; (ii) the relation between nominal volatility and growth … increases the negative effect of nominal volatility on mean growth. …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008865975