The main challenge of forecasting credit default risk in loan portfolios is forecasting the default probabilities and the default correlations. We derive a Merton-style threshold-value model for the default probability which treats the asset value of a firm as unknown and uses a factor model...

This study identifies five distinctive stages of the current global financial crisis: the meltdown of the subprime mortgage market; spillovers into broader credit market; the liquidity crisis epitomized by the fallout of Northern Rock, Bear Stearns and Lehman Brothers with counterparty risk...

The article surveys the literature pertaining to the Basel II and concludes with the concerns germane to India in this regard

The new Basel accord is slated to come into effect in India around 2007 raising the question of how the revised standards will influence bank behaviour. Using a simple theoretical model, it is shown that the revised accord will result in asymmetric differences in the efficacy of monetary policy...

This study aims to analyse the sensitivity of capital requirements to changes in risk parameters (PD, LGD and M) by creating a ‘model bank’ with a portfolio mirroring the average asset composition of internationally active large banks, as well as locally oriented smaller institutions...

One of the main functions of the central bank is to strengthen the stability of the financial system, an important aspect of which is to take an active part in the legislation process to improve the regulatory environment and to assess the potential impacts of new regulatory measures. In the...

Exposure at Default (EAD) quantification for the large exposures to contingent credit lines (CCLs) is a critical for models of credit risk amongst financial institutions. This includes expected loss calculations for loan provisions, economic credit capital as well as regulatory capital under the...

The paper analyzes, on the base of a presented sampling, the trends of population crediting by the banks in the Siberian Federal District in the periods of the pre-crisis, crisis and post-crisis restoration. We can state that in the crisis a sex structure of borrowers (physical persons) has...