We investigated the extent to which the human capacity for recognition helps to forecast political elections: We compared naive recognition-based election forecasts computed from convenience samples of citizens' recognition of party names to (i) standard polling forecasts computed from...

Lately, traditional forecasting methods have been depicted as inferior to newer ones which are attempting to simulate the human decision making process. However, this goal might even be impossible to achieve. This paper introduces an inverse approach to the forecasting problem. The typical...

Prediction markets - markets used to forecast future events - have been used to accurately forecast the outcome of political contests, sporting events, and, occasionally, economic outcomes. This chapter summarizes the latest research on prediction markets in order to further their utilization by...

This paper finds that claim prices in prediction markets, a new genre of financial markets, follow a Poisson distribution. The significance of this finding is that as soon as a claim in a prediction market is created and thereafter flushes out expert and inside information from around the world...

Prediction markets--markets used to forecast future events--have been used to accurately forecast the outcome of political contests, sporting events, and, occasionally, economic outcomes. This chapter summarizes the latest research on prediction markets in order to further their utilization by...

September 2002, a new market in 'Economic Derivatives' was launched allowing traders to take positions on future values of several macroeconomic data releases. We provide an initial analysis of the prices of these options. We find that market-based measures of expectations are similar to...

Prediction Markets, sometimes referred to as 'information markets', 'idea futures' or 'event futures', are markets where participants trade contracts whose payoffs are tied to a future event, thereby yielding prices that can be interpreted as market-aggregated forecasts. This article summarizes...

Prediction markets – markets used to forecast future events – have been used to accurately forecast the outcome of political contests, sporting events, and, occasionally, economic outcomes. This chapter summarizes the latest research on prediction markets in order to further their...

Web2.0 users can create new services by combining existing Web2.0 services that offer open programming interfaces. This system of service composition forms a network, which we call the Web2.0 service network. A node of the Web2.0 service network represents a service. A link between two nodes...

This study aimed to evaluate the applicability of the current intellectual capital (IC) measurement approaches for further performance analysis. This study was a part of the project sponsored by Department of Industrial Work in Thailand on sustaining organisational learning. Given the trends in...