Gal and Gertler (1999) developed a hybrid variation of the New Keynesian Phillips curve that relates inflation to real marginal cost, expected future inflation and lagged inflation. GMM estimates of the model suggest that forward looking behavior is highly important; the coefficient on expected...

We estimate a forward-looking monetary policy reaction function for the postwar United States economy, before and after Volcker's appointment as Fed Chairman in 1979. Our results point to substantial differences in the estimated rule across periods. In particular, interest rate policy in the...

We develop and estimate a structural model of inflation that allows for a fraction of firms that use a backward looking rule to set prices. The model nests the purely forward looking New Keynesian Phillips curve as a particular case. We use measures of marginal costs as the relevant determinant...

In this Paper we present a simple, theory-based measure of the variations in aggregate economic efficiency associated with business fluctuations. We decompose this indicator, which we refer to as ‘the gap’, into two constituent parts: a price markup and a wage markup, and show that the...

We develop an analytically tractable Phillips curve based on state-dependent pricing. We differ from the existing literature by considering a local approximation around a zero inflation steady state and introducing idiosyncratic shocks. The resulting Phillips curve is a simple variation of the...