In this final article of our three-part series, we demonstrate why stochastic coefficients models are well suited to predict future variables We analyze the forecasting problem and consider various criteria of prediction If a forecaster must choose one from among several coherent predictors,...

On the example of a commercial microfinance institution (MFI) in Tanzania this paper investigates first whether agricultural firms have a different probability to get a loan and whether their loans are differently volume rationed than loans to non-agricultural firms. Second, we analyze whether...

This paper contributes to the debate on the link between speculation and price volatility in two ways. First, a simple CAPM model is used to derive the demand for commodity futures contracts by institutional investors, and this derived demand is then integrated into a simple rational...

The paper uses a panel data set of 1309 households in Uganda to measure vulnerability to poverty between 1992/2000 and to estimate the impact of household characteristics on vulnerability. The likelihood of future poverty is estimated based on the expected mean and variance of household...

This paper investigates the effects of network based individual social capital on the access of rural households to services. In the context of development economics, an innovative data collection approach is used to determine network based social capital. The approach originates from the field...

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