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I evaluate the out-of-sample forecasting performance of five models of Chinese and Indian energy consumption. The results are mixed, but in general the auto-regressive distributed lag and unobserved components models perform the best over multiple evaluation criteria. I then use these two models...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011114340
In this paper we introduce HECTOR, a new and advanced long-term electricity market model that simulates market behavior bottom-up through opportunistic, variable cost-based bidding of individual power plants into auction-based national markets with international interconnection capacities....
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008487662
develop next day total energy use (NDTEU) and next day peak demand (NDPD) forecast models for each phase. The models were ….87 and forecast accuracy ranged from 0.74 to 0.84. NDPD hindcast accuracy ranged from 0.68 to 0.74 and forecast accuracy … combined the best traits of the ARIMAX and NN techniques, resulting in improved hindcast and forecast fits across the all three …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011031054
against a control algorithm with a perfect forecast. A specific case study, using storage on the LV network, is presented, and …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010778846
The forecast plays an important role in the planning, the decision-making and control in any domain of activity … (univariate models), that use only the information of its past values to forecast the future, can often predict future with more … accuracy than causal or multivariate models. In this paper, we model and forecast the offensive effectiveness of the soccer …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005789648
In nonlinear econometric models, the evaluation of forecast errors is usually performed, completely or partially, by … one-period (static) forecast errors empirically. …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008506106
An empirical forecast accuracy comparison of the non-parametric method, known as multivariate Nearest Neighbor method …, through the estimation of economic indicators plugged in the bridge equations, we get more accurate forecasts when using … for dependent time series, providing confidence intervals for point forecast in time series. …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008461116
variables: the Greek unemployment rate and the FTSE-100 stock index returns. The methodology employed in the effort to forecast …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008470478
The numerical example which completes the paper by Goldberqer, Nagar and Odeh, on the estimated asymptotic covariance matrix of the reduced form coefficients for the Klein-I model estimated by Two Stage Least Squares (2SLS), has led to some misinterpretations of the properties of the model. In...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008548838
realised inflation with the stated ex ante coverage probabilities 50, 75 and 90 percent? In total 150 interval forecast 1999:Q2 …-2005:Q2 are assessed for CPI and KPIX. The main result is that the forecast uncertainty is understated, but there are … substantial differences between individual forecast origins and inflation measures. …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008553047