In this study some alternative forecasts for the unemployment rate of USA made by four institutions (International Monetary Fund (IMF), Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD), Congressional Budget Office (CBO) and Blue Chips (BC)) are evaluated regarding the accuracy and...

In this paper, we ask whether it is possible to forecast gross value-added (GVA) and its sectoral subcomponents at the regional level. With an autoregressive distributed lagmodel we forecast total and sectoral GVA for one German state (Saxony) with more than 300 indicators from different...

In this paper, we extract common factors from a cross-section of U.S. macro-variables and Treasury zero-coupon yields. We find that two macroeconomic factors have an important predictive content for government bond yields and excess returns. These factors are not spanned by the cross-section of...

In this paper article, two strategies based on the econometric approach are proposed in order to improve the forecast accuracy of GDP index in Romania. First, the index is predicted starting from an econometric model that reflects the relationship between the GDP index and the GDP deflator....

Econometric modeling of the exchange rate saw successive progresses, the forecasts based on the ‘70s models having a rather good accuracy, as recent researches showed. In order to explain the monthly evolution of RON/USA exchange rate during 2007-June 2011, I used three econometric models: a...

The aggregation of the variables that compose an indicator, as GDP, which should be forecasted, is not mentioned explicitly in literature as a source of forecasts uncertainty. In this study based on data on U.S. GDP and its components in 1995-2010, we found that GDP one-step-ahead forecasts made...

This article proposes an empirical econometric approach to improve the degree of accuracy for predictions made by Romanian experts in forecasting. Several fixed-effects models are constructed using the inflation and unemployment rate actual values and the forecasts provided by the European...

The main objective of this study is to make a comparative analysis of inflation convergence in Central-Eastern European countries (CEE countries) during the economic crisis over 2008-2013. For Bulgaria, Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland, Romania and Slovakia the inflation convergence has decreased...

In this paper, we assess the accuracy of macroeconomic forecasts at the regional level using a large data set at quarterly frequency. We forecast gross domestic product (GDP) for two German states (Free State of Saxony and Baden- Württemberg) and Eastern Germany. We overcome the problem of a...