I evaluate the out-of-sample forecasting performance of five models of Chinese and Indian energy consumption. The results are mixed, but in general the auto-regressive distributed lag and unobserved components models perform the best over multiple evaluation criteria. I then use these two models...

Energy storage is a potential alternative to conventional network reinforcement of the low voltage (LV) distribution network to ensure the grid’s infrastructure remains within its operating constraints. This paper presents a study on the control of such storage devices, owned by distribution...

This paper set out to identify the significant variables which affect residential low voltage (LV) network demand and develop next day total energy use (NDTEU) and next day peak demand (NDPD) forecast models for each phase. The models were developed using both autoregressive integrated moving...

In this paper we introduce HECTOR, a new and advanced long-term electricity market model that simulates market behavior bottom-up through opportunistic, variable cost-based bidding of individual power plants into auction-based national markets with international interconnection capacities....

This paper presents a method to conduct early estimates of GDP growth in Germany. We employ MIDAS regressions to circumvent the mixed frequency problem and use pooling techniques to summarize efficiently the information content of the various indicators. More specifically, we investigate whether...

In this paper, we ask whether it is possible to forecast gross value-added (GVA) and its sectoral subcomponents at the regional level. With an autoregressive distributed lagmodel we forecast total and sectoral GVA for one German state (Saxony) with more than 300 indicators from different...

In this paper, we assess the accuracy of macroeconomic forecasts at the regional level using a unique data set at quarterly frequency. We forecast gross domestic product (GDP) for two German states (Free State of Saxony and Baden-Württemberg) and Eastern Germany. We overcome the problem of a...

A hypothesis of uncertain future was created and first applied in the field of utility and prospect theories. An extension of application of the hypothesis to the field of forecasting is considered in the article. The concept of inevitability of unforeseen events is a part of the hypothesis of...

This paper investigates the accuracy of forecasts from four DSGE models for inflation, output growth and the federal funds rate using a real-time dataset synchronized with the Fed's Greenbook projections. Conditioning the model forecasts on the Greenbook nowcasts leads to forecasts that are as...