In this study some alternative forecasts for the unemployment rate of USA made by four institutions (International Monetary Fund (IMF), Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD), Congressional Budget Office (CBO) and Blue Chips (BC)) are evaluated regarding the accuracy and...

In this paper article, two strategies based on the econometric approach are proposed in order to improve the forecast accuracy of GDP index in Romania. First, the index is predicted starting from an econometric model that reflects the relationship between the GDP index and the GDP deflator....

Econometric modeling of the exchange rate saw successive progresses, the forecasts based on the ‘70s models having a rather good accuracy, as recent researches showed. In order to explain the monthly evolution of RON/USA exchange rate during 2007-June 2011, I used three econometric models: a...

The aggregation of the variables that compose an indicator, as GDP, which should be forecasted, is not mentioned explicitly in literature as a source of forecasts uncertainty. In this study based on data on U.S. GDP and its components in 1995-2010, we found that GDP one-step-ahead forecasts made...

This article proposes an empirical econometric approach to improve the degree of accuracy for predictions made by Romanian experts in forecasting. Several fixed-effects models are constructed using the inflation and unemployment rate actual values and the forecasts provided by the European...

The main objective of this study is to make a comparative analysis of inflation convergence in Central-Eastern European countries (CEE countries) during the economic crisis over 2008-2013. For Bulgaria, Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland, Romania and Slovakia the inflation convergence has decreased...

Economic forecasts are an essential building block for a budgetary anticipation in order to determine the budgetary objectives and to sustain the tax and expenditure plans. In Romania the surveillance process is ensured by the use of budget programs. The aim of this paper is to improve the...

We suggest that the real exchange rate between the major currencies in the post-Bretton Woods period can be described by a stationary, two state Markov switching AR(1) model. Based on the forecast performance, both in-sample and out-of-sample, we find that this model out-performs two competing...